Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

A fossil fuel-free future is close at hand … if the EU wills it

Patrick ten Brink and Jonathan Bonadio 8th July 2020

An NGO-led, science-based scenario shows the European Union can become climate-neutral by 2040. All that is missing is the political will.

Patrick ten Brink
Patrick ten Brink

The EU’s flagship European Green Deal aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050. This goal is often described as ‘ambitious’—and it is ambitious compared with the situation today.

Compared with what we can achieve, however, we can afford to be considerably more ambitious. This has been demonstrated via a modelling exercise led by civil society, namely the European Environmental Bureau and the Climate Action Network.

climate-neutral, fossil fuels
Jonathan Bonadio

It finds that the EU can achieve climate neutrality by 2040—10 years earlier than agreed by governments and institutions. It also finds that the bloc can cut emissions by 65 per cent by 2030, as opposed to the current EU target of 40 per cent.

This is good news for our overheating planet. Accelerating climate action in this way would bring the EU in line with its commitments under the Paris Agreement and recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which emphasises the urgent need to halt climate change at 1.5C or lower to avoid catastrophic consequences for humanity, nature and the planet.

Electrifying possibilities

The scenario we have produced is the first based entirely on renewables to be developed by civil-society organisations in co-operation with grid operators, industry representatives, economists and researchers. It was created in the context of the ‘Paris Agreement-compatible scenarios for energy infrastructure’ project.

This corresponds with demands from some EU member states. Earlier this year, the governments of Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Spain called on the European Commission to include a 100 per cent renewable energy scenario in long-term climate projections.

But how would this work?

With the right policies in place, renewables, from solar and wind power to green hydrogen, could account for half of EU final energy consumption in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2040.

climate-neutral

But it is not only a question of renewable energy production. Energy savings alone could halve the EU’s energy demand by 2040, according to our scenario. These would principally involve deep renovation and insulation of Europe’s ageing homes and offices, increased vehicle efficiency, the modernisation of industrial production processes, energy-efficiency gains in home appliances and a reduction in demand for raw materials through implementing the ‘circular economy’ principles of waste prevention, reusing and recycling.

climare-neutral

Make fossil fuels history

However, for this scenario to work requires a clear timeline to phase out fossil fuels in the near future. The EU must phase out coal by 2030, stop using fossil gas by 2035 and end the use of petroleum products by 2040.

Our model also excludes the backdoor use of fossil fuels. For example, while ‘green hydrogen’ generated renewably is acceptable, other forms of hydrogen extracted from fossil fuels or other non-renewable sources are out of the question.

Herein lies the major barrier and hurdle. Completely phasing out fossil fuels by 2040 is entirely feasible, as our scenario clearly demonstrates, but our fossilised system stands in the way.

Despite the EU’s commitment to a renewable future, the inertia of legacy systems combined with resistance and lobbying from certain segments of industry are clipping the wings of Europe’s ambitions. This must change, and urgently.

Renewable willpower

The Covid-19 crisis is holding up a mirror to society, throwing its vulnerabilities and fragilities into sharp focus. We urgently need to build a more resilient and sustainable world. To do so requires us to accelerate the shift to a fossil fuel-free future.

We possess the knowledge, technology, resources and systems to make the transition to a renewable future free of fossil fuels. Over the last two decades we have also seen the costs of renewables fall so low as to be cheaper than fossil-fuel alternatives. What is missing is the political will to move full-speed-ahead with the transformation.

We call on policy-makers to shift investments away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy infrastructure, energy and resource efficiency, and sustainable business practices.

The opportunity is now, with the discussions on the recovery plan, on the EU’s budget, the European Green Deal and the range of strategic decisions that will be taken in the very near future—on the Hydrogen Strategy, the Renovation Wave, the Batteries Directive and the Offshore Wind Strategy, to name but a few.

At the member-state level, national climate and energy plans will be key vehicles to achieve these priorities. And discussions on carbon taxes, the Emissions Trading System and subsidy reform will be essential, at both national and EU levels. Unless the economic signals are right, we cannot expect the investments to flow to the green transition. 

By coupling science-based targets on energy and climate with the recovery mechanisms, bailouts and stimulus packages, we can speed up the transition and prevent catastrophic climate change. A 100 per cent renewable scenario should not be seen as ‘ambitious’—often taken as a euphemism for not realistic—but rather as essential.

Khaled Diab also made a major input to this article

Patrick ten Brink and Jonathan Bonadio

Patrick ten Brink is the director of EU policy at the European Environmental Bureau and Jonathan Bonadio its policy officer for renewables, climate and grids.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983c824 240f 477c bc69 697bf625cb93 1 Mind the Gap: Can Europe Afford Its Green and Digital Future?Viktor Skyrman
u421983467b5 5df0 44d2 96fc ba344a10b546 0 Finland’s Austerity Gamble: Tax Cuts for the Rich, Pain for the PoorJussi Systä
u421983467 3f8a 4cbb 9da1 1db7f099aad7 0 The Enduring Appeal of the Hybrid WorkplaceJorge Cabrita
u421983ae 3b0caff337bf 0 Europe’s Euro Ambition: A Risky Bid for “Exorbitant Privilege”Peter Bofinger
u4219834676b2eb11 1 Trump’s Attacks on Academia: Is the U.S. University System Itself to Blame?Bo Rothstein

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity”,

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641