Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • Global cities
    • Strategic autonomy
    • War in Ukraine
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

What Effect Might Terrorist Atrocities In Paris Have On UK’s EU Referendum?

Matthew Goodwin 23rd November 2015

Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin

It has been a depressing week. The terrorist atrocities in Paris have renewed public fears over terrorism and security and dominated headlines. Terrorism and security threats are likely to remain high on the agenda. What effect might this have on Britain’s EU referendum?

There is certainly evidence from social science to suggest that events like those in Paris can have significant effects. As one academic notes, there is a small but growing body of evidence that terrorism can have a decisive influence on elections. Consider this summary:

Comparing absentee ballots, cast before the Madrid bombing, with ballots cast on election day, Montalvo (2007) concludes that the terrorist attack had a substantial effect on the outcome of the election. Berrebi & Klor (2006), using Israeli opinion-poll data, find that the numbers of deaths from terrorist attacks influence voting behavior. Holmes & Piñeres (2002) attribute public support for the incumbent to his success in dealing with terrorism. Jacobson (2003) and Langer & Cohen (2005) point out that voters in, respectively, the 2002 mid-term election and the 2004 presidential election in the United States listed terrorism among the most important issues determining their vote choice. In an experimental, Merolla & Zechmeister (2007) find that voters weigh leadership characteristics more heavily in deciding how to vote during security crises.

There are some other examples, too. In Israel there is evidence to suggest that the mere threat of terrorism increased support for right-wing parties. In Turkey, too, research suggests that against the backdrop of terrorism incumbent governing parties tend to suffer while right-wing parties gain. And there is no doubt that Britons have registered the threat. This past week one poll suggested that nearly 80% of voters feel worried about terrorism.

In Europe this research suggests that a heightened security agenda will benefit radical right and anti-EU parties. In countries like the Netherlands Geert Wilders is already sat comfortably in first place in the polls and there is also a referendum next April. A ‘No to the EU’ vote at this ballot would provide an awkward but significant backdrop to Britain’s own vote. Similarly, strong results for Marine Le Pen in France and the anti-EU Austrian Freedom Party at the Presidential election next year would add to this general climate.

In Britain, one unknown is whether citizens perceive the more effective response to terrorism to be at the EU or national level. One poll this week indicated that the public is divided on this – while 39% feel that EU membership makes Britain stronger, 26% think that it weakens Britain’s security, and 23% thinks it makes no difference. Clearly, much will depend on the Remain camp’s ability to make the case for pan-European cooperation, as well as the Leave’s camp success in convincing voters that it is riskier to stay in than get out.

So, a lot to chew on.


Become a Social Europe Member


Support independent publishing and progressive ideas by becoming a Social Europe member for less than 5 Euro per month. Your support makes all the difference!


Click here to become a member

Let’s turn to the latest Poll of Polls where there has been little movement: Remain 52%, Leave 48%

However, that the race has tightened since the beginning of the summer has prompted some to highlight the distinct possibility of Brexit. Peter Kellner believes that a Remain vote is the most likely outcome although he notices several trends that are working to favour Leave:

  • Many voters remain uncertain about the perceived effects of Brexit
  • The percentage who see Brexit as a risk has fallen (though is still a majority)
  • Boris Johnson, who evidence suggests could tilt the balance, has yet to show his hand

 

We might add to this list the possible impact of external ‘shocks’ between now and the vote, such as further terrorist atrocities, a continuation or acceleration of the refugee crisis, or another financial downturn.

At one event last week a German civil servant made two interesting observations. One was that the number of refugees arriving in Europe is not falling to the levels expected as winter nears. The other is growing concern over rising numbers of migrants from Afghanistan and North Africa who are joining those from elsewhere.

In Britain, another potential new variable that has been underlined by events in the Lords is the prospect of votes for 16 and 17 year olds. What effect would this have?

Alan Renwick points out that at the recent referendum in Scotland turnout among this group lagged behind the overall average by around ten points, a trend that has also emerged in other referendums around the world. However, in Scotland these young voters were still around twenty points more likely than 18-24 year olds to vote. And as Renwick points out, using a study of under-18s by the British Election Study, they lean strongly toward Remain. So, this could make a real difference.

Oh, and by the way, if you’re interested in the referendum you will probably find this blog by Matt Singh on why pollsters got the general election wrong a very interesting read. Turns out that among other things the polls underestimated Ukip’s impact on Labour.

This column was first published by The UK in a Changing Europe

Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin is Professor of Politics at the University of Kent, Visiting Fellow at Chatham House and ESRC 'The UK in a Changing Europe' Fellow.

You are here: Home / Politics / What Effect Might Terrorist Atrocities In Paris Have On UK’s EU Referendum?

Most Popular Posts

new world order,state,citizen A new world order: from warring states to citizensPaul Mason
Tesla,IF Metall,electric car,union US electric-car maker faces Swedish union shockGerman Bender
Israel,Hamas Israel and Hamas: the debasement of discourseRobert Misik
Israel-Palestine,refugee,refugees Israel-Palestine: a comparative perspectiveBo Rothstein
Germany,sick,economic Germany’s true economic diseasePeter Bofinger

Most Recent Posts

human security,Europe,investment,military Investing in human security in EuropeChiara Bonaiuti
citizenship education,European Union,democratic European citizenship education—antidote to hateRéka Heszterényi
healthcare,hospitals,social dialogue,pandemic Healthcare depends on the health of social dialogueJorge Cabrita and Victoria Cojocariu
multi-level,Europe,networks,sovereignty Barking up the wrong European treeJan Zielonka
renewable,fossil-fuel,energy,renewables,inflation,prices The renewable answer to Europe’s fossil-fuel inflationFelix Heilmann and Maximilian Krahé

Other Social Europe Publications

Global cities cover pdf Global cities
strategic autonomy Strategic autonomy
Bildschirmfoto 2023 05 08 um 21.36.25 scaled 1 RE No. 13: Failed Market Approaches to Long-Term Care
front cover Towards a social-democratic century?
Cover e1655225066994 National recovery and resilience plans

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Transforming capitalism in the Age of AI

Will the EU once again accept Big Tech's power as a fait accompli while belatedly trying to mitigate risks, or can it chart a different course?

Join our conference on the EU approach to the digital transition. On Wednesday, 6 December, FEPS and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Competence Centre on the Future of Work are co-organising an evening of high-level debates on the digital future of Europe. There will be keynotes by the European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, Nicolas Schmit; Evgeny Morozov, founder of The Syllabus; and Phoebe V Moore, globally recognised expert on digitalisation and the workplace. The event will be moderated by John Thornhill, innovation editor at the Financial Times.


MORE HERE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI European Collective Bargaining Report 2022 / 2023

With real wages falling by 4 per cent in 2022, workers in the European Union suffered an unprecedented loss in purchasing power. The reason for this was the rapid increase in consumer prices, behind which nominal wage growth fell significantly. Meanwhile, inflation is no longer driven by energy import prices, but by domestic factors. The increased profit margins of companies are a major reason for persistent inflation. In this difficult environment, trade unions are faced with the challenge of securing real wages—and companies have the responsibility of making their contribution to returning to the path of political stability by reducing excess profits.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ETUI advertisement

Response measures to the energy crisis: a missed opportunity to feed the socio-ecological contract

With winter coming and Europe ready to get through it without energy shortages, power cuts and recession, new research conducted by the ETUI in seven EU member states (AT-FR-DE-GR-IT-PL-ES) highlights that, with some 80 per cent of spending being directed to broad-based measures, short-term national government support during the recent energy crisis was poorly targeted. As a result, both social- and climate-policy goals were rather sidelined, with the biggest beneficiaries of public fossil-fuel subsidies being higher income groups and the wealthiest people.


AVAILABLE HERE

Eurofound advertisement

How will Europe’s green transition impact employment?

Climate-change objectives and decarbonisation measures are vital for the future of Europe. But how will these objectives affect employment and the labour market?

In the latest episode of the Eurofound Talks podcast series, Mary McCaughey speaks with the Eurofound senior research manager John Hurley about new research which shows a marginal increase in net employment from EU decarbonisation measures—but also potentially broad shifts in the labour market which could have a profound impact in several areas.


LISTEN HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us

RSS Feed

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641