Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

What Effect Might Terrorist Atrocities In Paris Have On UK’s EU Referendum?

Matthew Goodwin 23rd November 2015

Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin

It has been a depressing week. The terrorist atrocities in Paris have renewed public fears over terrorism and security and dominated headlines. Terrorism and security threats are likely to remain high on the agenda. What effect might this have on Britain’s EU referendum?

There is certainly evidence from social science to suggest that events like those in Paris can have significant effects. As one academic notes, there is a small but growing body of evidence that terrorism can have a decisive influence on elections. Consider this summary:

Comparing absentee ballots, cast before the Madrid bombing, with ballots cast on election day, Montalvo (2007) concludes that the terrorist attack had a substantial effect on the outcome of the election. Berrebi & Klor (2006), using Israeli opinion-poll data, find that the numbers of deaths from terrorist attacks influence voting behavior. Holmes & Piñeres (2002) attribute public support for the incumbent to his success in dealing with terrorism. Jacobson (2003) and Langer & Cohen (2005) point out that voters in, respectively, the 2002 mid-term election and the 2004 presidential election in the United States listed terrorism among the most important issues determining their vote choice. In an experimental, Merolla & Zechmeister (2007) find that voters weigh leadership characteristics more heavily in deciding how to vote during security crises.

There are some other examples, too. In Israel there is evidence to suggest that the mere threat of terrorism increased support for right-wing parties. In Turkey, too, research suggests that against the backdrop of terrorism incumbent governing parties tend to suffer while right-wing parties gain. And there is no doubt that Britons have registered the threat. This past week one poll suggested that nearly 80% of voters feel worried about terrorism.

In Europe this research suggests that a heightened security agenda will benefit radical right and anti-EU parties. In countries like the Netherlands Geert Wilders is already sat comfortably in first place in the polls and there is also a referendum next April. A ‘No to the EU’ vote at this ballot would provide an awkward but significant backdrop to Britain’s own vote. Similarly, strong results for Marine Le Pen in France and the anti-EU Austrian Freedom Party at the Presidential election next year would add to this general climate.

In Britain, one unknown is whether citizens perceive the more effective response to terrorism to be at the EU or national level. One poll this week indicated that the public is divided on this – while 39% feel that EU membership makes Britain stronger, 26% think that it weakens Britain’s security, and 23% thinks it makes no difference. Clearly, much will depend on the Remain camp’s ability to make the case for pan-European cooperation, as well as the Leave’s camp success in convincing voters that it is riskier to stay in than get out.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



So, a lot to chew on.

Let’s turn to the latest Poll of Polls where there has been little movement: Remain 52%, Leave 48%

However, that the race has tightened since the beginning of the summer has prompted some to highlight the distinct possibility of Brexit. Peter Kellner believes that a Remain vote is the most likely outcome although he notices several trends that are working to favour Leave:

  • Many voters remain uncertain about the perceived effects of Brexit
  • The percentage who see Brexit as a risk has fallen (though is still a majority)
  • Boris Johnson, who evidence suggests could tilt the balance, has yet to show his hand

 

We might add to this list the possible impact of external ‘shocks’ between now and the vote, such as further terrorist atrocities, a continuation or acceleration of the refugee crisis, or another financial downturn.

At one event last week a German civil servant made two interesting observations. One was that the number of refugees arriving in Europe is not falling to the levels expected as winter nears. The other is growing concern over rising numbers of migrants from Afghanistan and North Africa who are joining those from elsewhere.

In Britain, another potential new variable that has been underlined by events in the Lords is the prospect of votes for 16 and 17 year olds. What effect would this have?

Alan Renwick points out that at the recent referendum in Scotland turnout among this group lagged behind the overall average by around ten points, a trend that has also emerged in other referendums around the world. However, in Scotland these young voters were still around twenty points more likely than 18-24 year olds to vote. And as Renwick points out, using a study of under-18s by the British Election Study, they lean strongly toward Remain. So, this could make a real difference.

Oh, and by the way, if you’re interested in the referendum you will probably find this blog by Matt Singh on why pollsters got the general election wrong a very interesting read. Turns out that among other things the polls underestimated Ukip’s impact on Labour.

This column was first published by The UK in a Changing Europe

Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin is Professor of Politics at the University of Kent, Visiting Fellow at Chatham House and ESRC 'The UK in a Changing Europe' Fellow.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u42198346ae 124dc10ce3a0 0 When Ideology Trumps Economic InterestsDani Rodrik
u4219834676e9f0d82cb8a5 2 The Competitiveness Trap: Why Only Shared Prosperity Delivers Economic Strength—and Resilience Against the Far RightMarija Bartl
u4219834676 bcba 6b2b3e733ce2 1 The End of an Era: What’s Next After Globalisation?Apostolos Thomadakis
u4219834674a bf1a 0f45ab446295 0 Germany’s Subcontracting Ban in the Meat IndustryŞerife Erol, Anneliese Kärcher, Thorsten Schulten and Manfred Walser

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp