Development: better days could lie ahead (yes, really)

Overwhelmed by the ‘polycrisis’, it is easy to miss some positive indicators of global development.

Political decisions and perseverance are reasons why many features of society are actually improving, even when it may not always seem that way. Looking back to see how far we have come can inspire us to keep striving forward.

It has been nearly 20 years since the international-health expert Hans Rosling gave his TED talk on global development trends and the common misconceptions surrounding them. The presentation, which went viral, was an eye-opener for many who held outdated perceptions of the state of the world. Although I watched the lecture several years later, the presentation, along with Gapminder’s visualisations of educational data, sparked my interest in social development, statistics and programming.

With war in Ukraine and Gaza, an inflation crisis which has erased years of real wage growth and an ever-more-pressing climate crisis, positive global development trends may not be at the forefront of our minds. Yet when it seems most things are headed in the wrong direction, it is beneficial to take a step back and appreciate progress made. The intention is not to relax commitment but to motivate further efforts.

Child mortality

One of the metrics used by Rosling was child mortality. According to United Nations statistics, out of every 1,000 children born in 2001, 60 did not survive to their fifth birthday in 2006. By 2022, this number had declined to 37 for those born in 2017, which means child mortality nearly halved in less than two decades.

About the same number of children were born in 2001 and 2017, roughly 133 million. By 2006 eight million of those children had died before the age of five, reduced to 4.9 million in 2022. Although this remains a substantial number, over three million additional children in each new annual cohort would have died had there been no progress—an extraordinary achievement.

The most significant improvements occurred in regions with high mortality rates. Even in Europe, however, child mortality on this metric decreased from 7.9 deaths per 1,000 children in 2006 to 4.3 per 1,000 children in 2022. (In percentage terms, this represents a greater reduction than the global average.)

This progress has not occurred spontaneously. It is the result of a virtuous circle driven by political decisions that have allowed more children to attend school for longer periods, increased access to clean water and nutritious food, and improved and rendered more accessible healthcare. These advances lead to higher incomes, which can be reinvested at the political level in further enhancing education, production, healthcare and social services. This cycle continues, generating even higher incomes that can be reinvested, thereby gradually and steadily improving living conditions globally.

Not all trends though are positive. Take Sweden. During the past two decades, a weakened social-security system and rising housing rents have led to a minimal increase in disposable incomes for individuals in the lowest income brackets. This has occurred while disposable incomes have increased substantially for higher income groups, thanks to large tax cuts. Thus, political decisions can drive development in negative as well as positive directions.

Growing inequality in Sweden can be seen in another of Rosling’s most-used metrics—life expectancy. Although the pandemic caused global life expectancy to decline by nearly two years (to 71), it has still increased by 2.3 years since 2006. In Sweden, however, while average life expectancy has steadily increased over the years, it has recently fallen for women on lower incomes. Policies involving regressive redistribution have negatively affected development.

Most pressing challenges

Greenhouse-gas emissions and consequent climate change are among the most pressing challenges of our time. Historically, trends have moved in the wrong direction. While global carbon-dioxide emissions continue to rise, the rate of increase has however slowed and per capita emissions have decreased by 4 per cent since the peak in 2011. While emissions from Europe and north America are far from sustainable, there has been a reduction and the trend is pointing down.

Much of this improvement is due to deliberate policies driving progress. Initiatives such as the European Union Emissions Trading System and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act have been, and will be, crucial. In the future, we shall hopefully see political setbacks, such as the recent reduction of fuel tax in Sweden, as minor disruptions in an otherwise declining emissions curve.

One of the EU’s latest initiatives, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, ensures fairer pricing of emissions associated with goods imported from outside the union. As with prior policies, the CBAM is likely to contribute to reducing carbon emissions and fostering fairer competition for more sustainable alternatives. Another example of how a green transition can be pursued in tandem with greater equality is the European Citizens’ Initiative to tax great wealth to finance the transition.

Climate action also connects to Rosling’s work. In his 2018 book Factfulness, he showed how dramatically the price of solar panels had fallen over recent decades. By 2016, the price had dropped to $0.63 per watt generated, from $2.32 per watt just six years earlier. By 2022, it was just $0.26 per watt.

This progress has of course been driven by political decisions that steer market forces in the right direction. Imagine the potential impact of continued development in this direction. Nearly free energy from renewable sources could both lift people out of poverty and help achieve the green transition.

Both positive and negative developments stem from such decisions. This reality should stimulate us to keep pushing forward. We have accomplished a lot and, with continued efforts, we have still better days ahead.