Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • Global cities
    • Strategic autonomy
    • War in Ukraine
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Portuguese elections: Socialists expected to return to power but without a majority

Eunice Goes 3rd October 2019

The Portuguese governmental ‘contraption’ has turned out to be surprisingly enduring—so much so that it may face another term.

contraption
Eunice Goes

There is little suspense surrounding Sunday’s legislative elections in Portugal. The Socialist Party (PS), led by António Costa, is expected to return to power after four years of leading a minority government supported by the Left Bloc and the coalition Communist Party—Greens.

The only enigma concerns the size of the Socialists’ victory. Are they going to be rewarded with a clear majority, which will enable the formation of a single-party government, or will they be forced to seek the support of other parties to form a minority government once more?

Opinion polls conducted in recent months suggest Portuguese voters may deprive the PS of that desired majority in Parliament, but by just a few seats. The latest polls indicate a drop in the popularity of the Socialists to a 35.5 per cent share of the vote and a rise in the popularity of the main opposition party, the centre-right Social Democratic Party, to 28.9 per cent support.

If this result is reproduced on Sunday, the PS will be disappointed because it will not be able to govern on its own, but this is not necessarily a sign of unpopularity. In truth, Portuguese voters are wary of governments supported by landslide (or absolute) majorities in Parliament. In addition, and as in other European democracies, the fragmentation of the party system has intensified in the last decade.


Become part of our Community of Thought Leaders


Get fresh perspectives delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up for our newsletter to receive thought-provoking opinion articles and expert analysis on the most pressing political, economic and social issues of our time. Join our community of engaged readers and be a part of the conversation.

Sign up here

But perhaps more importantly, voters are also aware that the political stability and rising living standards of the last four years are the result of a joint effort by the four parties of the left. In other words, denying a majority to the Socialists may be a way of ensuring that the innovative government formula agreed four years ago will be re-enacted following Sunday’s elections.

The ‘contraption’

When Costa announced in the autumn of 2015 the formation of his minority government, with its left outriders, few observers believed it would survive its first budget. Expectations were so low the opposition parties described it in derogatory terms as a geringonça (contraption), which would collapse at the first hurdle.

Yet the geringonça proved quite resilient. It overcame resistance from Brussels and Berlin to its attempts to reverse austerity policies, it managed to win approval for four budgets from the European Commission and the National Assembly, it lasted a full parliamentary term and it became a role model for European social-democratic parties to follow. As the prime minister claimed, ‘it’s a contraption, but it works!’.

Congenial timing and luck were important lubricants which ensured the effective working of the geringonça. But the key ingredient was the quirky government format negotiated by the Socialists and the political style it inspired. Crucially, this government was not a classic coalition, yet it went beyond a typical minority government supported by confidence-and-supply agreements with other parties.

The ‘quasi-coalition’ government, led by the PS, enabled all parties involved to keep their specific identities while they participated in policy-making. The Socialists controlled all government posts, negotiated the budgets with the European Commission and claimed the role of the ‘grown-ups in the room’ ensuring that budgetary discipline was kept.

By contrast, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party—Greens could be simultaneously government and opposition. Thus, they claimed responsibility for the rises in the minimum wage and pensions and for popular measures such as free textbooks for schoolchildren. But they attacked the Socialists with great ferocity when the PS resisted demands to increase teachers’ salaries or for investment in infrastructure and public services.

Behind the scenes, the relationships among the four parties were much closer and quite institutionalised. In fact, they resembled the functioning of classic coalition government, though there were important differences. The supporting parties were deeply involved in the drafting of the annual budget and other key public-policy measures, while not part of the government.

Smooth running

To secure the smooth running of government and, crucially, the approval of four budgets, the (then) minister for parliamentary affairs, Pedro Nuno Santos, met daily with the leaders of three parties. Because there is intense rivalry between the Left Bloc and the Communist Party, Nuno Santos had to meet each separately. He also had to keep an eye on the Socialist benches, as not all MPs were convinced of the wisdom of this governmental arrangement. This institutional network was complemented by regular appearances of the different ministers before the relevant parliamentary committees and by informal meetings between the prime minister and each party leader.


Support Progressive Ideas: Become a Social Europe Member!


Support independent publishing and progressive ideas by becoming a Social Europe member for less than 5 Euro per month. You can help us create more high-quality articles, podcasts and videos that challenge conventional thinking and foster a more informed and democratic society. Join us in our mission - your support makes all the difference!

Become a Social Europe Member

The fluency of the geringonça also demanded a different style of doing politics. This does not rely on heroic leadership (with all the trappings of confrontational and adversarial politics) but depends on the unglamorous practices of dialogue, rhetorical restraint (especially from the party that leads the government), bargaining and consensus-building. 

This was a high-maintenance operation which absorbed significant institutional resources and kept the Socialists on their toes. For that reason, the PS is leading a combative electoral campaign, in the hope of avoiding the re-enactment of the geringonça.

But, funnily enough, the polls suggest that it is exactly this result that most voters favour—the Socialists kept in power but on their mettle.

Eunice Goes 1
Eunice Goes

Eunice Goes is professor of politics at Richmond University.

You are here: Home / Politics / Portuguese elections: Socialists expected to return to power but without a majority

Most Popular Posts

Russia,information war Russia is winning the information warAiste Merfeldaite
Nanterre,police Nanterre and the suburbs: the lid comes offJoseph Downing
Russia,nuclear Russia’s dangerous nuclear consensusAna Palacio
Belarus,Lithuania A tale of two countries: Belarus and LithuaniaThorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
retirement,Finland,ageing,pension,reform Late retirement: possible for many, not for allKati Kuitto

Most Recent Posts

Russia,journalists,Ukraine,target Ukraine: journalists in Russia’s sightsKelly Bjorkland and Simon Smith
European Union,enlargement,Balkans EU enlargement—back to the futureEmilija Tudzarovska
European Health Data Space,EHDS,Big Tech Fostering public research or boosting Big Tech?Philip Freeman and Jan Willem Goudriaan
migrant workers,non-EU Non-EU migrant workers—the ties that bindLilana Keith
ECB,European Central Bank,deposit facility How the ECB’s ‘deposit facility’ subsidises banksDavid Hollanders

Other Social Europe Publications

strategic autonomy Strategic autonomy
Bildschirmfoto 2023 05 08 um 21.36.25 scaled 1 RE No. 13: Failed Market Approaches to Long-Term Care
front cover Towards a social-democratic century?
Cover e1655225066994 National recovery and resilience plans
Untitled design The transatlantic relationship

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI European Collective Bargaining Report 2022 / 2023

With real wages falling by 4 per cent in 2022, workers in the European Union suffered an unprecedented loss in purchasing power. The reason for this was the rapid increase in consumer prices, behind which nominal wage growth fell significantly. Meanwhile, inflation is no longer driven by energy import prices, but by domestic factors. The increased profit margins of companies are a major reason for persistent inflation. In this difficult environment, trade unions are faced with the challenge of securing real wages—and companies have the responsibility of making their contribution to returning to the path of political stability by reducing excess profits.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ETUI advertisement

The future of remote work

The 12 chapters collected in this volume provide a multidisciplinary perspective on the impact and the future trajectories of remote work, from the nexus between the location from where work is performed and how it is performed to how remote locations may affect the way work is managed and organised, as well as the applicability of existing legislation. Additional questions concern remote work’s environmental and social impact and the rapidly changing nature of the relationship between work and life.


AVAILABLE HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Eurofound Talks: housing

In this episode of the Eurofound Talks podcast, Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound’s senior research manager, Hans Dubois, about the issues that feed into housing insecurity in Europe and the actions that need to be taken to address them. Together, they analyse findings from Eurofound’s recent Unaffordable and inadequate housing in Europe report, which presents data from Eurofound’s Living, working and COVID-19 e-survey, European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and input from the Network of Eurofound Correspondents on various indicators of housing security and living conditions.


LISTEN HERE

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

The summer issue of the Progressive Post magazine by FEPS is out!

The Special Coverage of this new edition is dedicated to the importance of biodiversity, not only as a good in itself but also for the very existence of humankind. We need a paradigm change in the mostly utilitarian relation humans have with nature.

In this issue, we also look at the hazards of unregulated artificial intelligence, explore the shortcomings of the EU's approach to migration and asylum management, and analyse the social downside of the EU's current ethnically-focused Roma policy.


DOWNLOAD HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us

RSS Feed

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube