The results in Saxony and Thuringia show the party does not have to moderate its positions to have electoral success.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved unprecedented results in regional elections in the states of Saxony and Thuringia, both part of former East Germany. The party took around 30 per cent of the vote in each state. In Thuringia, this put the AfD well ahead of any other party. In Saxony, the AfD was a close second behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The result is particularly concerning given the extreme position of the AfD in Thuringia and Saxony. These regional branches of the AfD have been classified as right-wing extremists by German security authorities. The leader of the AfD in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, uses particularly radical language.
It’s also alarming for German democracy that the AfD has managed to garner significant support while very openly embracing extreme views. Far-right parties in other countries have often had to moderate their rhetoric to achieve electoral success, but the AfD has not, in this case, had to do so.
A rising force
The longstanding taboo in Germany that once rendered far-right positions unacceptable has been eroding for some time. Now this taboo appears to have lost its influence over a third of voters in the east. The threats posed by the AfD to democracy do not seem to be putting them off.
Admittedly, mainstream parties have struggled in Thuringia in recent years, with both the far right and far left having success, especially in areas that struggle economically. There is a sense among some voters in former East German regions that the economic and political system of the unified Germany benefits them less than the rest of the country, which leads to resentment towards mainstream elites.
But while this has likely contributed to the current election result, concerns about crime and immigration also played a key role. Anti-immigrant slogans seem to have been a key mobilising force, particularly for AfD voters. Indeed, voter turnout was very high in these elections—above 70 per cent in both states.
It’s also significant that the AfD gained considerable support among voters under 30, reflecting a wider trend in Europe for younger people, particularly men, to increasingly lean towards far-right positions. The AfD’s strong presence on platforms such as TikTok also seems to be part of the formula.
What next?
State governments hold considerable power over numerous issues that significantly affect the everyday lives of citizens in Germany, including education, which is exclusively determined at the state level. Additionally, state governments participate in federal legislation on matters that affect the regions. The AfD would need a coalition partner both in Thuringia and in Saxony to form a government. Yet all parties running in the elections have committed to avoiding a coalition with the AfD.
Thus all other parties in Thuringia and Saxony face the very challenging task of forming a coalition without the AfD. To achieve this in either Saxony or Thuringia, the electoral arithmetic necessitates unprecedented coalitions between parties with strikingly different ideologies. Whether this will be feasible remains to be seen.
Such a coalition would compel the conservative CDU to work with very left-leaning partners, including the newly formed BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance). It is likely to be extremely challenging for CDU and BSW politicians to find common ground. The BSW, which was formed this year as a splinter group from the Left party, takes a strong stance against immigration. This is in stark contrast to the Left party, which sees immigration much more positively. The latter, however, saw significant losses in both states.
Involving the BSW in a government could have implications for national political discourse, too, particularly as the BSW opposes Germany’s provision of weapons to Ukraine. Thus the AfD and BSW align more closely on certain key policy issues that resonate with voters and it is an open question whether the BSW will continue to rule out working with the AfD.
The successes of the AfD in Saxony and Thuringia will also have immediate ramifications for Germany’s national government and the chancellor, Olaf Scholz. All three of the parties that make up the national government coalition—the social democrats (SPD), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats—suffered losses in these regional elections. The results are likely to exacerbate tensions in Berlin. Questions will be raised about whether the coalition can survive until the federal elections of 2025 and how the three parties can hold together as they try to appeal more to their own core voters.
This first appeared on the Europp blog of the London School of Economics
Florian Stoeckel is an associate professor of political science at the University of Exeter.