What has been the Cost of Ukraine’s War—And Who Pays?

Three years on, the war in Ukraine has reshaped economies, lives, and global politics. Can Europe afford the price?

Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, what has been the cost of war? What have been its consequences?

Starting with the economic dimensions, Russia today has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at just over $2 trillion, while Italy’s stands at $2.2 trillion. Ukraine’s GDP is one-tenth the size of Russia’s, at approximately $200 billion. The war has reduced Ukraine’s GDP by about 20 percent—far more than Russia’s—exacerbating a long-standing disparity. Russian per capita income is now twice that of Ukraine. In real terms, Ukraine’s per capita income halved with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, later recovering but remaining stuck at three-quarters of Soviet-era levels. Russia experienced the same initial decline after 1991 but has since seen its per capita income double in real terms since 2000.

The human cost of the war is the most tragic. In February 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that 31,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed. As of 31 August 2024, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission had documented at least 11,743 civilian deaths and 24,614 injuries in Ukraine since the invasion began. Six million Ukrainians have fled to escape war and military conscription, while an estimated four million are internally displaced. According to the United Nations, Ukraine’s population has declined by one-quarter since the invasion began.

The destruction caused by the war has been immense. By December 2023, international institutions estimated the damage at $152 billion. Today, the United Nations predicts that the country’s reconstruction may cost $486 billion—roughly two and a half times Ukraine’s GDP.

Both Ukraine’s economy and its war effort have been sustained by international support. According to the Ukraine Support Tracker from Kiel University, Kyiv has received 267 billion euros in aid over the past three years. Half of this has been in weapons and military assistance, with 118 billion euros in financial support and 19 billion euros for humanitarian aid. European countries have contributed more than the United States: 62 billion euros in arms and 70 billion euros in other aid from Europe, compared with 64 billion euros in arms and 50 billion euros in other aid from the United States.

European arms supplies come from individual nations and the European Peace Facility, which pools resources from EU member states. Along with the Ukraine Assistance Fund, Kyiv has received 11.1 billion euros in arms from Brussels over the past three years, according to European Council figures. Between domestic spending and external aid, the direct costs of the war for Ukraine have already exceeded twice the volume of the country’s GDP.

Beyond direct support, there is extensive indirect military assistance, which is difficult to quantify. Ukraine’s war effort relies on “command, control, communication and intelligence” (C3I) systems provided by the United States and European nations. Satellites, battlefield reconnaissance, missile and drone warfare, targeting systems, logistics, and military coordination are all made possible by Western military technology and support. Additionally, Western backing for Kyiv has played a role in deterring further Russian escalation in the type of weapons deployed.

Donald Trump has all this in mind when he demands that Kyiv “reimburse” the United States for security costs and looks at Ukraine’s strategic resources. According to tentative estimates reported by the Financial Times, Ukraine’s reserves of strategic minerals are valued at approximately $11.5 billion. However, Trump has demanded $500 billion worth of Ukraine’s resources—not just minerals, but also oil, gas, ports, and infrastructure—as compensation for the military aid provided by the United States, whose direct support to Ukraine since 2014 has totalled $69.2 billion.

What about Russia? Estimates from the US Department of Defense—though they should be treated with caution—suggest that Russia’s military operations have cost Moscow up to $211 billion, approximately one-tenth of its GDP. The same estimates indicate that 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. Like Ukraine, Russia has experienced rising inflation and has redirected substantial resources toward arms production. However, large financial reserves accumulated through oil and gas exports have helped cushion the effects of Western sanctions. Meanwhile, new trade relationships—including through business triangulations—have kept the Russian economy functioning. Rising energy prices resulting from the war have further bolstered the value of Russia’s exports.

The hard facts of three years of war—considering both economic costs and political consequences—present a stark reality. Ukraine is a fragile nation, its economy and war effort sustained only by Western support. The asymmetry with Russia has deepened; Moscow has demonstrated economic resilience, repositioned itself internationally, and solidified a nationalist political and economic elite loyal to Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian rule.

The cost of the war has fallen disproportionately on Europe, which has found itself politically marginalised by the United States under both Biden and Trump. Europe has been unable to propose a negotiated resolution to the conflict. It has severed cooperation with Russia while facing unexpected strains in its alliance with the United States, particularly under Trump. The continent has suffered from inflation, economic downturns, and growing impoverishment, with profound consequences for its social and political landscape. Under the pretext of supporting Ukraine, Europe is transforming itself into a military power—abandoning the very principles of European integration, fuelling further arms races, and constructing a military-industrial complex that remains subordinate to the technological supremacy of American weaponry.

Donald Trump’s White House is using war and American military power to pressure both adversaries and allies. “Western values” have been sidelined as war logic reshapes global relations, with consequences extending beyond Ukraine—including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine.

Three years after the war in Ukraine began, this logic of war must be stopped. A new accord between Trump and Putin will not bring lasting peace to Ukraine. But Europe cannot pursue an agenda of war at any cost, nor should it chase dangerous ambitions of becoming a (small) military and nuclear power. Nostalgia for a fractured Atlantic alliance is of little use. Europe’s future now depends on its ability to end the war in Ukraine, initiate negotiations, and build a lasting peace order on the continent—through political means, not military escalation.