Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Are Europe’s Populists Calling The Shots?

Mark Leonard 6th July 2018

Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard

In 2011, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was forced from office by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and replaced by Mario Monti, an able technocrat who looked like he had been designed in a laboratory by the European Commission and Goldman Sachs.

But now the boot is on the other foot. An extraordinary populist coalition comprising Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, Italian Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini, and German Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer is threating to oust Merkel over her migration policies.

In an attempt to shore up her position, Merkel recently held a summit with French President Emmanuel Macron at Meseberg Castle outside of Berlin, where she agreed to a European Union reform agenda that would seem to go beyond most Europhiles’ wildest dreams.

But the Meseberg summit itself looked more like a Franco-German conclave than a relaunch of the European project. Macron is trying to protect Merkel from the rebellious forces within her own governing coalition, and both leaders are acting like they are still the masters of the universe. Yet for all their talk of transforming the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund and reining in the Italian government’s behavior on refugees, one gets the sense that it is the populists who are calling the shots.

The era when Germany could resolve European crises by effectively making domestic political decisions for other member states seems to have ended. In the current standoff, it is Merkel’s Germany that is now the spielball (“playing ball”). Decisions that may determine the fate of her government are being made in Rome, Sofia, and other capitals on the European Union’s periphery.

This shifting balance of power is most evident in Merkel’s eagerness to meet with Orbán at an EU summit in early July, just three months after she refused to congratulate him on his reelection. Since then, several factors have changed the state of play in European politics.

For starters, Seehofer’s Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, is preparing to fend off the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in regional elections this October. The CSU regularly hosts Orbán at its party meetings, and he and Seehofer have been in close contact throughout the refugee crisis.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



Second, Kurz, in a coalition with the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), recently declared that overhauling EU migration policies would be a top priority for Austria during its presidency of the Council of the European Union. And, third, in early June, Italy’s Five Star Movement and Salvini’s right-wing League party formed a government that combined two very different strands of populism. In doing so, they have created a template for left-wing anti-austerity populists and right-wing anti-immigration populists to forge similar alliances in other member states – including Germany.

As interior minister, Salvini has taken a hard line on migration, not least by turning away vessels carrying asylum seekers rescued from the Mediterranean. And his approach is inspiring Seehofer and Kurz – ever the opportunists – to double down on their own immigration proposals.

As Germany’s interior minister, Seehofer wants to start turning away asylum seekers who have already registered in other member states. This has pitted him against Merkel, who would prefer to forge an EU-level agreement to fix Europe’s asylum system.

Earlier this month, just as Merkel and Seehofer’s dispute was heating up, Kurz made an appearance in Berlin, where he called for Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Germany – or, at least, Germany’s interior ministry – to form an “axis of the willing” on migration. Kurz also tried to undercut Merkel in early 2016, when he was serving as Austria’s foreign minister. Appearing on live German television, he declared that he would close the Balkan route for refugees fleeing Syria for Northern Europe.

Merkel was able to fend off this earlier attempt at domestic interference. But today, both Europe and Germany’s divisions have widened, and she must find a way to bridge the gaps. For example, while Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has doubled down on his opposition to a eurozone “transfer union,” Merkel has agreed, in principle, to Macron’s proposal for a joint eurozone budget.

Yet Germany is caught in the middle of the “fiscally responsible” Hanseatic League (Northern Europe), the anti-immigration Visegrád Group (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and anti-austerity forces in the southern eurozone. In an earlier era, a strong, visionary chancellor could have exploited the fact that these different currents are all present on the German political scene. In fact, after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Merkel herself was able to forge domestic compromises that worked for the entire continent.

But the key difference between then and now is that the US government no longer has an interest in a strong, united Europe – or in global stability, for that matter. After the annexation of Crimea, Merkel could count on then-US President Barack Obama’s support. The same cannot be said for President Donald Trump or Richard Grenell, his chosen ambassador to Germany, both of whom are actively undermining Merkel’s domestic credibility.

Of course, Merkel cannot be written off yet. After 13 years in power, she has shown herself to be extraordinarily resilient and capable of facing down ambitious macho men. Seehofer, Kurz, Salvini, Orbán, and Trump would all do well not to underestimate her.

Still, Europe is at a critical juncture. Those who favor deeper integration and openness have wasted a lot of time, while populists and nationalists have marshaled their forces. After their summit at Meseberg Castle, one can only wonder if Macron and Merkel are ready for an extended siege.

Republication forbidden. Copyright: Project Syndicate 2018 Are Europe’s Populists Calling the Shots?

Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u4219834dafae1dc3 2 EU’s New Fiscal Rules: Balancing Budgets with Green and Digital AmbitionsPhilipp Heimberger
u42198346d1f0048 1 The Dangerous Metaphor of Unemployment “Scarring”Tom Boland and Ray Griffin
u4219834675 4ff1 998a 404323c89144 1 Why Progressive Governments Keep Failing — And How to Finally Win Back VotersMariana Mazzucato
u42198346ec 111f 473a 80ad b5d0688fffe9 1 A Transatlantic Reckoning: Why Europe Needs a New Pact Beyond Defence SpendingChristophe Sente
u4219834671f 3 Trade Unions Resist EU Bid to Weaken Corporate Sustainability LawsSocial Europe

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp