Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Brexit: deaths, more deaths … and no-deal calculations

Paul Mason 18th May 2020

In a nightmare-scenario ‘Brexit’ denouement, the UK government provokes no-deal chaos from which it hopes to profit after its Covid-19 shambles.

no-deal Brexit
Paul Mason

For Boris Johnson the year that was supposed to be focused on ‘Brexit’ has turned into a year that’s focused on death. To be exact, 50,000 excess deaths and rising—the result of his government’s hubris and incompetence in the face of the Covid-19 epidemic. 

The UK’s response to the pandemic has been pilloried in the global media: the late lockdown, the shortages of personal protective equipment and testing kits, the unannounced strategy of protecting the hospital system by moving the epidemic into the eldercare-home system and, at time of writing, a confused and fragmentary attempt to ease the restrictions on work and movement.

Renewed prospect

But there is hope in sight for the prime minister, in the form of a clash with the European Union and the renewed prospect of a no-deal Brexit. At the official level, the UK still plans not only to leave the single market on December 31st but to trigger a no-deal scenario as early as June 30th—by which time any extension of the transition would have to be decided—if no outline agreement is reached at the EU-UK summit next month. 

Last week the government moved civil servants who had been dealing with the Covid-19 outbreak back into their jobs at the ‘Exit Operations’ unit and increased the tempo of preparations for a no-deal outcome.

Meawhile, at community level, the social constituencies which voted for Brexit have—until now—given Johnson the benefit of the doubt over his handling of the pandemic. While the left and sections of the media clamoured for a hard and early lockdown, the anecdotal reaction in Brexit-supporting communities was ‘Stop politicising things—support the government’.

Now, as the trade unions resist Johnson’s attempt to reopen schools and public transport, the familiar lines of cultural warfare are re-emerging. The unions are ‘selfish’ and the opponents of the relaxation ‘wreckers’ who just want the economy to collapse—that’s been the subtext, or text, of right-wing tabloid-press coverage over the past week.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



Discontented majority

But it’s not working. Support for Johnson’s handling of the epidemic peaked at 72 per cent at the end of March but has now fallen to 42 per cent. In a May 17th Yougov poll, for the first time, those discontented with the government’s performance overtook those contented, with the latter on 47 per cent. Crucially, this includes one in five of those who voted for Johnson—though the same demographics which split the UK over Brexit are still in evidence: all groups under 50 are disparaging of Johnson’s record, all groups over 50 supportive.

This is the background to the reactivation of the no-deal scenario in the Brexit talks. The UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, accused Michel Barnier, representing the EU, of clinging to an ‘ideological’ position—that the UK must honour its commitments to a level playing-field on social and environmental issues, as an ex-member seeking to sustain favourable trade access. 

As in the autumn 2019 Brexit crisis, this move is calculated to raise the spectre of no deal to bounce the EU into a more favourable agreement, while reigniting the political polarisation which put Johnson in power.

The playbook reads: first, ease the lockdown and use the right-wing press to brand Labour and other progressive parties as responsible for wrecking the economy if they oppose it. Next, suggest that the left is trying to sabotage Brexit by calling for an extension to the transition period. Finally, stage a confrontation at the June summit, at which the threat of a no-deal Brexit is activated, throwing the UK and the EU into a six-month crisis—out of which emerges a deal favourable to the UK.

Obstacles hit

Johnson has however hit several obstacles. First, though the Mail and Telegraph newspapers sprang into action to attack the teachers’ unions, the power to force schools to open lies with local authorities, many of which are siding with their own workforce. Next, under the new leadership of Keir Starmer, Labour has refused to call for a delay outright: seeing absolutely nothing to be gained politically, it has simply pointed out that the UK’s self-imposed year-end deadline does not look feasible. 

Finally, with the UK economy in freefall, and the government set to borrow £250-350 billion this financial year (April-April), there may not be enough political bandwidth for a stage-managed confrontation with Europe.

But the temptations for Johnson are strong. The UK’s public debt looks likely to rise above 100 per cent of GDP and he has promised his cabinet there will be no return to the austerity which has marked the last decade of power for his party. Hence the option looms to attempt to ‘lose’ the costs of a sudden reversion to World Trade Organization terms in 2021 inside the much larger economic damage inflicted by the lockdown. 

Decisive moment

If so, we are heading for a decisive moment, which will not only affect the UK. With world trade predicted to fall by up to a third this year, and with public discourse in the United States turning hostile to China across the board, the prospect emerges of a re-election of Donald Trump in November’s presidential election, followed by a hard Brexit crisis in December-January—the combined effects of which reorder the global system.

The extreme elements around Trump are reported to be fantasising about a US debt default against China. Meanwhile, if the UK walks away from the EU—with catastrophic short-term impacts on food, travel and the manufacturing supply chain—the extreme elements around Johnson will be free to advocate an ‘America first’ trade deal, turning the UK into a deregulated paradise for predatory US capital. The no-deal Brexit trauma, with checkpoints at the Northern Ireland border and food shortages in the supermarkets, would be a nice way of cancelling out the coronavirus trauma in the public mind.

The tragedy of this moment is that, with deglobalisation certain to gather pace, there is a strong, logical argument to be had, even with Brexit supporters, that the UK should seek a close relationship with the EU after it completes its departure. If the price of that relationship is a level playing-field and common jurisdiction on trade, it should—even for the Little Englanders—be worth paying. If the world economy is breaking up into large rival trading blocs, centred on Washington, Brussels and Beijing, the only logical place for the UK is within the European bloc.

But as all the lessons of 1929-34 tell us, declining imperial powers take bad decisions when the crisis comes. 

This article is a joint publication by Social Europe and IPS-Journal.

Paul Mason
Paul Mason

Paul Mason is a journalist, writer and filmmaker. His latest book is How To Stop Fascism: History, Ideology, Resistance (Allen Lane). His most recent films include R is For Rosa, with the Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung. He writes weekly for New Statesman and contributes to Der Freitag and Le Monde Diplomatique.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u4219834675 4ff1 998a 404323c89144 1 Why Progressive Governments Keep Failing — And How to Finally Win Back VotersMariana Mazzucato
u42198346ec 111f 473a 80ad b5d0688fffe9 1 A Transatlantic Reckoning: Why Europe Needs a New Pact Beyond Defence SpendingChristophe Sente
u4219834671f 3 Trade Unions Resist EU Bid to Weaken Corporate Sustainability LawsSocial Europe
u421983467 9c73 b24a0b674750 1 The West’s Defence Now Depends on Trump’s Mood SwingsStefan Stern
u4219834674735ecb6fd43 0 The Dark Side Of The Boom In Last-Mile LogisticsSilvia Borelli

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp