Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • Strategic autonomy
    • War in Ukraine
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter

Disunited In Diversity: How National Electoral Outcomes Harm Europe

Rodrigo Vaz 9th November 2017

Rodrigo Vaz

Rodrigo Vaz

Parties belonging to the ‘moderate’ political spectrum in today’s Europe have been claiming victory in national elections across EU countries. In the Netherlands, France, Germany and Austria, where the future of Europe was played out at high risk and high stakes, extremist forces ‘lost’. In the Czech Republic, even though Babis’ populists won the election, the Financial Times was quick to deem him a “pragmatist” who is “unlikely to jump on the illiberal bandwagon”.

We have set the bar too low. By and large, what we have witnessed is a series of pyrrhic victories for moderates across Europe. In order to leave the far-right out of the government, Mark Rutte had to organise a four-party coalition, a task so herculean and a compromise so tenuous it took him seven months to finish the job and fresh elections are already on the horizon. In Germany, even though compromises may be far easier to achieve, the unprecedented sought-after coalition between Merkel’s CDU, the FDP and the Greens exposes the shifts in the German electorate’s opinion. It illustrates the added difficulties in forming a government, when the SPD committed to leaving shared power so that the far-right AfD, that finished in third place, does not become the official opposition in the Bundestag. In France, even though Macron got two clear mandates at both the Presidential and Parliamentary elections, Le Pen’s Front National got a record number of votes. In Austria, the far-right FPÖ will surely re-enter government in coalition with the conservatives from ÖVP. What government will come out of the Czech elections only time will tell.

But what this all shows is that, far from the moderates’ victories claimed in post-election-day headlines, centrist solutions are under attack. There is a general shift firmly to the right. The centre-right gave in to populist rhetoric in the Dutch electoral campaign, but no case was clearer than ÖVP’s Sebastian Kurz, who advocates hard-line policies regarding migrants and refugees “once deemed fringe” – so much so that the FPÖ accuses him of “stealing their ideas”.

What happens now?

While the policy consequences of these results are still uncertain, some trends seem predictable. The EU will suffer a major blow at a time when it needs unity the most. Between the choice of enacting or backtracking on EU reforms, the parties now elected will choose the latter – and the remaining incumbents will take notice. While the far-right did not take first place in any country, its message stuck and made many centre-right parties lower their sights.

Macron’s plans to reform Europe are now in jeopardy as they clash head-on with the views of parties elected elsewhere in Europe. With the CSU pressuring Merkel to backtrack on her refugee policy, the entry of the FDP to the key German finance ministry and the AfD protesting in Parliament, it is highly doubtful Merkel will find enough political space, let alone political will, to support Macron’s proposed deeper economic and monetary union.


Our job is keeping you informed!


Subscribe to our free newsletter and stay up to date with the latest Social Europe content. We will never send you spam and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Sign up here

For ‘moderates’ to save face and make it easier for common sense to prevail in the elections happening in 2018, a few things need to happen by then. First of all, a strong commitment by the ‘moderates’ in power across Europe and some bold reforms in the EU’s architecture could save the day and open a window of opportunity for pro-European parties to reach clear victories in the elections scheduled for 2018, especially in Italy, where an electoral victory for the Five Star Movement would mean a severe blow to European progress.

Out of the rubble, some breathing space for the left?

The centre-left, meanwhile, should use this time for a long, structural and above all consequential reflection. With very few exceptions (Portugal, the UK and perhaps Sweden) progressive parties across Europe were punished in the most recent elections or are under that threat at the next ones. The best metaphor for the health of the European progressives is already a reality: France’s Socialist Party is putting its Paris headquarters up for sale.

The centre-left has been the subject of much debate in recent years, but the elections since 2016 have exposed it fully and made that debate all the more urgent. Some argue it is due to a decline in class identity – but others point to Corbyn’s successful appeal to working-class vote in the UK. Elsewhere, we know that corruption scandals kicked centre-left parties out of power in Poland and Hungary and they have not returned to power (or even parliament in the Polish case) since.

What lessons can be drawn from forces like the Netherlands’ GroenLinks, that succeeded in winning Amsterdam in the 2017 Dutch elections while Labour plunged to its worst result since World War II? What balance can the centre-left achieve between courting urban and rural voters, or advocating an open Europe versus protectionist measures? How can progressives put forward both a message of clear support for working classes and of welcoming refugees while escaping the wedge the far-right drew between these two issues?

Progressives in Europe now have a few years in which to answer these questions and define a course of action. In the answer to these questions lies the fate of not only the progressive cause in Europe, but Europe itself. But regardless of what that answer turns out to be, a clear defence of the causes that the left always defended – fighting inequality and defending the weaker members of society – must be at its very core.

Rodrigo Vaz

Rodrigo Vaz is currently a MA in International Relations and Diplomacy Studies at the College of Europe, Bruges. He was until recently Assistant Project Manager at the Assembly of European Regions and he has worked as Graduate Attaché Researcher at the British Institute in Eastern Africa. He holds a BA in International Relations from the Catholic University of Portugal and a MSc in African Politics at SOAS, University of London. His research interests lie mainly in political transition and regime change within a combined history and politics approach.

You are here: Home / Politics / Disunited In Diversity: How National Electoral Outcomes Harm Europe

Most Popular Posts

Russian soldiers' mothers,war,Ukraine The Ukraine war and Russian soldiers’ mothersJennifer Mathers and Natasha Danilova
IGU,documents,International Gas Union,lobby,lobbying,sustainable finance taxonomy,green gas,EU,COP ‘Gaslighting’ Europe on fossil fuelsFaye Holder
Schengen,Fortress Europe,Romania,Bulgaria Romania and Bulgaria stuck in EU’s second tierMagdalena Ulceluse
income inequality,inequality,Gini,1 per cent,elephant chart,elephant Global income inequality: time to revise the elephantBranko Milanovic
Orbán,Hungary,Russia,Putin,sanctions,European Union,EU,European Parliament,commission,funds,funding Time to confront Europe’s rogue state—HungaryStephen Pogány

Most Recent Posts

reality check,EU foreign policy,Russia Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—a reality check for the EUHeidi Mauer, Richard Whitman and Nicholas Wright
permanent EU investment fund,Recovery and Resilience Facility,public investment,RRF Towards a permanent EU investment fundPhilipp Heimberger and Andreas Lichtenberger
sustainability,SDGs,Finland Embedding sustainability in a government programmeJohanna Juselius
social dialogue,social partners Social dialogue must be at the heart of Europe’s futureClaes-Mikael Ståhl
Jacinda Ardern,women,leadership,New Zealand What it means when Jacinda Ardern calls timePeter Davis

Other Social Europe Publications

front cover scaled Towards a social-democratic century?
Cover e1655225066994 National recovery and resilience plans
Untitled design The transatlantic relationship
Women Corona e1631700896969 500 Women and the coronavirus crisis
sere12 1 RE No. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden?

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

The macroeconomic effects of re-applying the EU fiscal rules

Against the background of the European Commission's reform plans for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), this policy brief uses the macroeconometric multi-country model NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of the most relevant reform options from 2024 onwards. Next to a return to the existing and unreformed rules, the most prominent options include an expenditure rule linked to a debt anchor.

Our results for the euro area and its four biggest economies—France, Italy, Germany and Spain—indicate that returning to the rules of the SGP would lead to severe cuts in public spending, particularly if the SGP rules were interpreted as in the past. A more flexible interpretation would only somewhat ease the fiscal-adjustment burden. An expenditure rule along the lines of the European Fiscal Board would, however, not necessarily alleviate that burden in and of itself.

Our simulations show great care must be taken to specify the expenditure rule, such that fiscal consolidation is achieved in a growth-friendly way. Raising the debt ceiling to 90 per cent of gross domestic product and applying less demanding fiscal adjustments, as proposed by the IMK, would go a long way.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ILO advertisement

Global Wage Report 2022-23: The impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power

The International Labour Organization's Global Wage Report is a key reference on wages and wage inequality for the academic community and policy-makers around the world.

This eighth edition of the report, The Impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power, examines the evolution of real wages, giving a unique picture of wage trends globally and by region. The report includes evidence on how wages have evolved through the COVID-19 crisis as well as how the current inflationary context is biting into real wage growth in most regions of the world. The report shows that for the first time in the 21st century real wage growth has fallen to negative values while, at the same time, the gap between real productivity growth and real wage growth continues to widen.

The report analysis the evolution of the real total wage bill from 2019 to 2022 to show how its different components—employment, nominal wages and inflation—have changed during the COVID-19 crisis and, more recently, during the cost-of-living crisis. The decomposition of the total wage bill, and its evolution, is shown for all wage employees and distinguishes between women and men. The report also looks at changes in wage inequality and the gender pay gap to reveal how COVID-19 may have contributed to increasing income inequality in different regions of the world. Together, the empirical evidence in the report becomes the backbone of a policy discussion that could play a key role in a human-centred recovery from the different ongoing crises.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ETUI advertisement

The EU recovery strategy: a blueprint for a more Social Europe or a house of cards?

This new ETUI paper explores the European Union recovery strategy, with a focus on its potentially transformative aspects vis-à-vis European integration and its implications for the social dimension of the EU’s socio-economic governance. In particular, it reflects on whether the agreed measures provide sufficient safeguards against the spectre of austerity and whether these constitute steps away from treating social and labour policies as mere ‘variables’ of economic growth.


DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Eurofound webinar: Making telework work for everyone

Since 2020 more European workers and managers have enjoyed greater flexibility and autonomy in work and are reporting their preference for hybrid working. Also driven by technological developments and structural changes in employment, organisations are now integrating telework more permanently into their workplace.

To reflect on these shifts, on 6 December Eurofound researchers Oscar Vargas and John Hurley explored the challenges and opportunities of the surge in telework, as well as the overall growth of telework and teleworkable jobs in the EU and what this means for workers, managers, companies and policymakers.


WATCH THE WEBINAR HERE

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

The winter issue of the Progressive Post magazine from FEPS is out!

The sequence of recent catastrophes has thrust new words into our vocabulary—'polycrisis', for example, even 'permacrisis'. These challenges have multiple origins, reinforce each other and cannot be tackled individually. But could they also be opportunities for the EU?

This issue offers compelling analyses on the European health union, multilateralism and international co-operation, the state of the union, political alternatives to the narrative imposed by the right and much more!


DOWNLOAD HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us

RSS Feed

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube