Across Europe, governments are embracing digital transformation to make public services faster, smarter, and more efficient. Estonia stands as the benchmark—a small Baltic country that has, over the past two decades, vaulted into global prominence as a digital pioneer.
According to the Estonian government, by December 2024 every state service had become digital, completing the circle of a decades-long transformation toward what officials proudly call a “100 per cent e-state”. Every public service, from voting to filing taxes to getting a divorce, can be completed online. Secure data exchanges, digital identity, and the once-only data principle have made bureaucracy nearly invisible. At first glance, Estonia appears to glide effortlessly through the digital age, with its model frequently showcased as a blueprint for others. But speed and technical sophistication alone are proving insufficient.
Estonia’s digital systems currently enjoy widespread public support. However, high levels of trust in e-services do not automatically translate into confidence in state governance. As digitalisation accelerates, new challenges emerge: an emotional distance between the state and citizens, feelings of exclusion, and concerns that parts of society are being left behind. The e-state is no longer just a technological project; it has become increasingly a political and social one.
According to a 2024 survey by the OECD, 82 per cent of Estonians expressed satisfaction with public services—especially with digital solutions during life events. Additionally, 72 per cent of respondents preferred accessing government services via digital channels. Satisfaction and trust were particularly high among younger and more educated citizens.
Despite this, trust in political institutions has declined significantly. Surveys from autumn 2024 showed noticeable erosion of trust in parliament and government. In June, 36 per cent of respondents trusted the parliament; by September, this had dropped to 29 per cent. Trust in the government declined from 37 per cent to 30 per cent over the same period. The fall in trust stems from various factors, including economic insecurity, tax reforms, and inflation.
Historian David Vseviov has pointed to the growing emotional distance between citizens and politicians and declining public interest in politics. Ethnic divides are also evident. Russian-speaking minorities, who make up about a quarter of the population, consistently report lower trust in government. The 2023 Estonian Human Development Report noted that linguistic barriers and cultural identity gaps persist, even within fully digital systems.
Digital access versus digital belonging
Digital access doesn’t guarantee digital belonging. Access alone does not ensure a genuine sense of inclusion. When interactions become overly automated, citizens may feel that vital human qualities—dialogue, empathy, recognition—are being replaced by speed. This reveals a crucial paradox: the factors that make Estonia’s e-state efficient can also generate distance. While the system is technically accessible to everyone, it does not automatically foster a sense of belonging or inclusion.
Indeed, Estonia is not just digitalising services—it is automating them. Virtual agents like Bürokratt, biometric border AI, and algorithm-assisted decision-making in employment or tax cases are becoming standard. These “event-based services” increase speed, but not without risk. The e-Governance Academy’s 2023/2024 Yearbook report warned that AI-based governance may lead to opaque decisions, algorithmic bias, and a lack of clear appeal mechanisms, particularly affecting marginalised communities.
Automation is transforming not only services but also the roles of the people who provide them. Civil servants are shifting from paper-handling to managing digital platforms. Their new role involves fostering trust and clarity with “invisible clients” behind streams of data. This creates new accountability and ethical challenges. As digital capacity expands, public sector resilience must evolve—not only technologically, but also institutionally and culturally. State legitimacy depends not merely on efficiency but also on the cohesion and ethical integrity of the institutions sustaining the system.
The government recognises these tensions. Estonia’s 2024–2027 coalition agreement highlights data-driven governance and smart administration, but also explicitly commits to inclusion and local empowerment. Regional smart specialisation programmes aim to ensure innovation builds on community strengths instead of enforcing a one-size-fits-all model. Public participation projects, digital literacy efforts, and transparent algorithmic governance are intended to broaden the digital “dance floor”—inviting citizens to shape the rhythm of digital life.
Estonia’s digital journey is often presented as a universal model, but replication is not simple. Its small population (1.3 million), centralised governance, and early investment in digital infrastructure are unique strengths. Its historical context and post-Soviet reform path are also aspects that are not replicable elsewhere. Still, Estonia’s experience offers a crucial lesson: the success of digital governance depends less on technology than on trust. It is not enough to digitise and automate services efficiently—citizens must feel ownership and see themselves reflected in the system.
Estonia’s e-state story is not just a technical narrative; it is a social performance. The metaphor of dance is fitting: the state may lead gracefully, but the choreography only works if every citizen feels invited to the floor. Efficiency can set the tempo, but inclusion gives the dance its meaning and legitimacy.
As Europe continues its quest for digital government, Estonia offers not just inspiration but also a reminder. Like technological innovation, democratic innovation must be continuous, reflexive, and centred around people. Because trust cannot be coded—it must be cultivated.
Dr Iivi Riivits-Arkonsuo is an Associate Professor of Marketing Analytics at the School of Business and Governance, Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech). She holds a PhD in Economics, and her research focuses on stakeholder engagement, digital transformation, and the digital divide, topics that are increasingly central to inclusive and sustainable development in the digital age.
