For the first time, in the first half of this year wind and solar generated more electricity in the European Union.
The first half of 2024 has confirmed what we already knew: the energy transition in the European Union has unstoppable momentum. Wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels between January and June for the first time, even as demand rebounded from the impacts of the gas-price crisis. With more and more capacity coming online, this tipping point is likely to be permanent.
New analysis from Ember finds that wind and solar rose to a record 30 per cent of EU power in the first six months of the year, overtaking fossil fuels which generated 27 per cent (see graph). This follows a record year for energy transition in 2023, which saw wind power overtake gas for the first time. As new milestones pile up across the EU, we are witnessing a historic shift in real time—much more quickly than anyone would have thought.
Wind and solar surging
The actions taken by EU member states following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulted in a surge of wind and solar capacity in 2023. This paved the way for significant rises in renewable generation in 2024.
Across the EU, solar generation increased by 20 per cent (+23 terawatt hours) in January-June compared with the same period in 2023, with wind increasing by 9.5 per cent (+21TWh). Hydro also increased considerably (+21 per cent, +33TWh), returning to historic generation levels after two years affected by droughts.
In tandem, generation from fossil fuels has plummeted for the second year running (see chart), decreasing by 17 per cent (-71TWh) in the first half of this year from January-June 2023. The largest reduction came from coal generation which fell by 24 per cent (-39TWh), making up over half the total fall in fossil generation. Gas generation decreased by 14 per cent (-29TWh), with the largest falls in Spain and Italy. Ember’s analysis shows that the biggest single driver of reductions in EU fossil generation in the first half of this year was the structural growth of wind and solar.
Unlike in the previous two years, this fall in fossil generation took place despite electricity demand rising by 0.7 per cent, as EU member states recovered from the spike in gas prices, although a mild winter dampened the size of the demand rebound. Wind and solar generation were sufficient to outpace this—giving confidence that they can deliver their dual role in the energy transition of meeting increased demand and replacing fossil generation.
This turning point has been reached thanks to the continued structural build-out of wind and solar capacity, which has continued into 2024. By the end of the year, Wind Europe expects 15.8 gigawatts of wind capacity to be installed in the EU, while SolarPower Europe forecasts 62GW of solar capacity additions over the same period. Thanks to this continued expansion we expect this year to mark a permanent shift, as wind and solar become the backbone of the EU’s electricity system.
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Transition in full swing
The energy transition is in full swing across EU countries. Four member states—Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Hungary—individually hit the milestone of wind and solar overtaking fossil power for the first time in the first half of this year.
In Germany, coal generation fell by over a quarter (-28 per cent, -19TWh) on January-June 2023, even as nuclear generation decreased year-on-year following the complete closure of the country’s nuclear fleet. This was helped by a 14 per cent (+4.5TWh) increase in solar generation, alongside strong growth in wind power. The pace of growth of solar capacity in Hungary meanwhile has meant that it set three consecutive all-time highs for monthly solar output in April, May and June this year.
All in all, almost half of EU member states (13 out of 27), collectively responsible for 70 per cent of the union’s electricity demand, now generate more electricity from wind and solar than from fossil fuels. The first half of 2024 has shown the impressive momentum of the EU’s clean-power transition. The continued buildout of wind and solar has allowed member states to reduce reliance on fossil-fuel generation—and the exposure to volatile prices that comes with it.
But this momentum will need to be sustained if the EU is to meet its ambitious 2030 targets, as set out in the REPowerEU plan. Key will be implementation of measures that can ease wind and solar integration, such as shortening grid-connection queues.
Having been re-elected as president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has signalled that delivering on the commitments in the European Green Deal will remain a priority. And there are pressing reasons to keep the energy transition central to the European agenda: moving from fossil fuels to clean power can enhance the EU’s competitiveness and make it more resilient to future price shocks, as well as shoring up security in times of apparently unending uncertainty.
Euan Graham is an electricity and data analyst at the global energy think-tank Ember.