Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

The French Election and Europe’s Future

Joschka Fischer 4th May 2017

Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer

A lot can happen between now and the second round of the French presidential election on May 7, so it is still too early to celebrate. But, even with the nationalist, populist candidate Marine Le Pen still in the running, many observers are genuinely hopeful that the first-round winner, Emmanuel Macron, will be France’s next president.

With Macron’s victory, Europe would avoid self-destruction yet again. A President Le Pen would almost surely bring about the end of the European Union. Taking France out of the eurozone, as Le Pen has promised, would lead to the collapse of the euro itself. After that, the EU common market and other core institutions would fall like dominoes. Europe would plunge into the abyss, and 60 years of political, economic, and social progress would be lost.

Moreover, Le Pen wants to withdraw France from NATO and pursue friendlier relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. This would throw current security arrangements across Europe into chaos, quite possibly leading to panic among investors and plunging the continent into economic crisis. The political consequences are scarcely predicable.

After France’s second-round vote, Europe will likely be spared this nightmare scenario for the time being – meaning the next five years. Still, to avoid a future disaster, European leaders must learn the right lessons from this year’s French election.

For starters, it is in Europe’s interest that a President Macron not fail. The EU’s future, and particularly that of Germany, depends on a successful Macron presidency to lift France from its long economic malaise and resolve its paralyzing identity crisis.

A weak, economically stagnant, and politically insecure France poses an acute danger to the entire European project, because a France that remains in that state will inevitably succumb to the type of anti-European nationalism that Le Pen represents. At the same time, a strong, self-confident France is necessary for the EU’s long-term survival.

Whether or not Macron’s presidency is a success will depend on his ability to heal France’s social divisions, restore its economic dynamism, and tackle its high unemployment, particularly among young people. We should not lose sight of the fact that almost half of the French electorate voted for Euroskeptic and anti-establishment candidates in the first round. The EU cannot survive many more elections with that kind of outcome, so “business as usual” is no longer an option.

Above all, the next French president will have to restore economic growth. And the same can be said for all other eurozone member states. After Germany’s general election in September, the government will finally have to take the plunge and pursue a more robust economic policy, unless it wants to cede the stage to nationalists who would destroy the EU.

Although Germany has made valid arguments in defense of its fiscal and external surpluses, its current economic model has failed to stimulate enough growth in the eurozone to stabilize the single currency. Achieving that goal will require a new consensus between Northern and Southern Europe, led by Germany and France.

It will also require Germany finally to take some decisive steps toward accommodating France’s economic needs, and to dispel the illusion that the EU can survive under a regime of exclusive German leadership. The EU is a complicated entity that can be led only by a strong French-German axis working in concert with other member states. That, too, is a lasting lesson that European leaders should take from the French election.

Macron, for his part, will have to avoid a trap that ensnared his predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande. Both cozied up too closely to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and thus could not confront the German government when necessary. For example, I would wager that if France had done more to challenge Germany’s opposition to Eurobonds, anti-European populists on both the left and the right would not have gained the political momentum that they have in recent years. Constructive conflict in Europe is sometimes necessary. Without it, what the EU stands for remains obscure.

As the French presidential election reaches its conclusion, the description of Europe as a “community of destiny” still holds true, even after 60 years. On May 7, France will decide not just its own fate, but that of the EU, too. Europeans should rejoice – but then they must get down to work.

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2017 The French Election and Europe’s Future

Joschka Fischer 1
Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer was Germany’s foreign minister and vice-chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and a leader in the German Green Party for almost 20 years.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u42198344ce 92c9 4f54 9a14 edee35fb9221 3 Europe’s Quest for Technological Sovereignty: A Feasible Path Amidst Global RivalriesChristian Reiner and Roman Stöllinger
u4219834670ab 1 Reclaiming Sutan Sjahrir: The Quiet Moral Core of Democratic Socialism in Southeast AsiaDeny Giovanno
u421983467 4b96 a2b4 d663613bf43e 0 A Fair Future?  How Equality Will Define Europe’s Next ChapterKate Pickett
u42198346742 445d 82f2 d4ae7bb125be 2 A Progressive Industrial Policy for the Global South: A Latin American PerspectiveJosé Miguel Ahumada and Fernando Sossdorf

Most Popular Articles

u4219834676 bcba 6b2b3e733ce2 1 The End of an Era: What’s Next After Globalisation?Apostolos Thomadakis
u4219834675 4ff1 998a 404323c89144 1 Why Progressive Governments Keep Failing — And How to Finally Win Back VotersMariana Mazzucato
09d21a9 The Future of Social Democracy: How the German SPD can Win AgainHenning Meyer
u421983462 041df6feef0a 3 Universities Under Siege: A Global Reckoning for Higher EducationManuel Muñiz

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp