Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Is This Angela Merkel’s Plan B?

Almut Möller 29th February 2016

Almut Möller

Almut Möller

In her policy statement to the Bundestag prior to the EU summit last week, Angela Merkel gave an insight into her progress in the search for a joint EU approach to the refugee crisis. The main question for Germany at the summit was: “Have we made so much progress with our European-Turkish approach within the framework of the EU-Turkey Agenda that it’s worth continuing along this path because it allows illegal migration to be perceptibly curbed, which is the crucial prerequisite for legal quotas? Or are we going to have to give up and instead, as some are vehemently demanding, close the Greek-Macedonian-Bulgarian border despite all the consequences for Greece and the European Union on the whole?”

The chancellor made it clear in her speech that she is still committed to making the deal with Turkey work. The already tricky ambition of engaging with Turkey became even more difficult with the Ankara bombings, which took place only hours after Merkel’s address and which led to the pre-summit meeting of the “coalition of the willing” being cancelled. For the time being, the Turkey deal remains on the table. Back home, Merkel also needs to demonstrate that she can rally more than just a handful of EU countries around her on this point and provide the much needed confidence that there will be joint ownership for the challenge of migration in the future. After all, the migration flows toward Europe won’t be stopping any time soon.

In mid-March Germany will hold regional elections in three German federal states. This will be a moment of truth for Angela Merkel and the federal government, because the elections will show the extent to which the arrival of refugees has changed the electoral landscape in the country. These elections mean that the window for firming up the EU-Turkey deal is closing fast. Angela Merkel knows she has to deliver.

While maintaining her convictions about the Turkey option, the Chancellor seems to be preparing for failure this time. It is a sign in itself that her statement explicitly mentioned the option of closing off Greece, which would effectively mean shifting the external borders of Schengen (while at the same time choosing not to mention Berlin’s negotiations with Ankara and a handful of other EU countries on a resettlement plan for Syrian refugees in Turkey).

A week into the EU summit it looks as if the option of engaging the Western Balkans region is gaining ever more ground. In Berlin there is a growing feeling that Greece continues to be a problem. Merkel and her advisors will be reviewing the costs and benefits of both aforementioned approaches. Essentially, they will weigh the costs of the still inadequate implementation of the EU-Turkey Action Plan against the costs of de facto pushing Greece out of the Schengen area. Ankara has been a difficult partner and it is an open secret that many capitals believe the deal is not going to work, or that it will come at too high a cost. Never has an EU accession country had so much leverage over the Union, a fellow analyst pointed out. Ultimately, it is hard to imagine that Angela Merkel is willing to expose Germany and the European Union to such a vulnerable agreement – one that they will have to rely on for months and years to come. Her solution needs stronger foundations.

The option of closing off the Macedonian and Bulgarian borders could give Germany and other EU countries the results it needs in a more reliable and importantly, much quicker way. The EU still has a lot more leverage over the accession countries in south-eastern Europe than on Turkey. Western Balkan countries have a strong interest in cooperating with the EU because they still have accession ambitions and a proven level of commitment. With the ongoing humanitarian crisis along the Western Balkans route, there is a risk that the geopolitical challenges the entire region is facing could be compounded by more refugees, as Sonja Licht argued in November 2015. Being part of the answer to the refugee challenge would give the countries of south-eastern Europe a strong sense of belonging, which would pay off for the EU in these desperate times.

But, and this is a strong but, the costs associated with such a move would be very high indeed, and Angela Merkel knows it. Greece would be de facto pushed out of the Schengen area, leaving the country in a difficult position. The backlog of migrants that has already started to build up in Greece is significant, and numbers would quickly rise. There might be hope that migrants would stop taking the route through Greece once borders further north were effectively closed, but this is far from a safe bet. It is more likely that refugees, at least for some time, would continue to embark on this route, putting more internal pressure on a country that is already described by some as a “failing state”.

Despite the years of controversy with Athens over Greece’s euro currency membership, Berlin is well aware of the risks connected with losing Greece – and is even more attuned to the symbolic and de facto impact that such a decision could have on the future of the Schengen area, and the EU as a whole. It is difficult to envisage Germany, a country that cares deeply about European integration and whose economy benefits enormously from the free movement in the single market, transforming into Schengen’s grim reaper. Having said that, time is running out and Merkel might soon have no other choice.

Austria’s foreign and interior ministers convened a conference with countries along the Western Balkan route in Vienna last week. This move was interpreted, alongside Austria’s stance at the last EU summit, as yet another open criticism of Berlin’s refugee policy. But is Vienna really so critical of Berlin? Yes, and no. Vienna is indeed reacting to Berlin’s failure to deliver solutions, which is why the government, facing a difficult domestic environment, has decided to take the bull by the horns. However, it is hard to believe that Austria would run into a fully-fledged confrontation with its German neighbours on such a vital issue.

As an EU member with ownership for developments in south-eastern Europe and in the EU as a whole, Vienna might ultimately turn out to be an instrumental partner in helping Angela Merkel out of the tight spot she is in. While Merkel was very explicit in rejecting the proposals made by the Visegrad group on closing off the Greek-Macedonian-Bulgarian border (something she had to do at that point for a number of other reasons), it would be easier for Berlin if conversations on any such scenario were facilitated by Vienna and the south-eastern European countries themselves rather than by the Visegrad states, who have caused Germany headaches in the midst of the refugee crisis and in recent months have shown little commitment to keeping the Union afloat. In such a scenario, Vienna could bring Berlin in for a Western Balkans focused solution. Angela Merkel would not completely lose face if such a course were to be pursued. After all, she would likely admit that she had to face a new reality and engage with practice that is already happening anyway.

Will Angela Merkel ultimately find her helping hand, if only by default? And how far has Berlin come in discussing scenarios for a Schengen without Greece, and for the costs if Greece is left to plunge even further into crisis?

This column was first published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

Almut Moeller
Almut Möller

Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983ae 3b0caff337bf 0 Europe’s Euro Ambition: A Risky Bid for “Exorbitant Privilege”Peter Bofinger
u4219834676b2eb11 1 Trump’s Attacks on Academia: Is the U.S. University System Itself to Blame?Bo Rothstein
u4219834677aa07d271bc7 2 Shaping the Future of Digital Work: A Bold Proposal for Platform Worker RightsValerio De Stefano
u421983462ef5c965ea38 0 Europe Must Adapt to Its Ageing WorkforceFranz Eiffe and Karel Fric
u42198346789a3f266f5e8 1 Poland’s Polarised Election Signals a Wider Crisis for Liberal DemocracyCatherine De Vries

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity”,

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641