Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

The Geography Of Elections

Jean Pisani-Ferry 10th October 2016

Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry

In many countries, where you live tends to be an accurate predictor of what or whom you are voting for. This was most evident in the maps of the electoral geography of voting for “Leave” and “Remain” in the United Kingdom’s June referendum on European Union membership. A similar pattern can be found in the distribution of votes in the 2012 US presidential election or in French support for Marine Le Pen’s National Front in the 2015 regional elections. It is very likely to be found in the United States’ upcoming presidential election. Many citizens live in places where a large share of their neighbors vote the same way they do.

This voting geography is indicative of a deep economic, social, and educational divide. Affluent cities, where university graduates concentrate, tend to vote for internationally-minded, often center-left candidates, while lower middle-class and working-class districts tend to vote for trade-adverse candidates, often from the nationalist right. It is no accident that mayors from the center-left govern New York, London, Paris, and Berlin, whereas smaller, struggling cities tend to prefer hard-right politicians.

Regional or local voting patterns are as old as democracy. What is new is a growing correlation of spatial, social, and political polarization that is turning fellow citizens into near-strangers. As Enrico Moretti of the University of California at Berkeley emphasized in his book The New Geography of Jobs, the salience of this new divide is unmistakable: university graduates account for half of the total population in the most affluent US metropolitan areas, but are four times less numerous in worse-off areas.

Economic shocks tend to exacerbate this political divide. Those who happen to live and work in traditional manufacturing districts caught in the turmoil of globalization are multiple losers: their job, their housing wealth, and the fortunes of their children and relatives are all highly correlated.

In fascinating new research, MIT’s David Autor and his co-authors have explored the political consequences. They find that US districts where the economy was severely hit by Chinese exports have responded by replacing moderate representatives with more radical politicians – either from the left or the right. Globalization, therefore, has resulted in both economic and political polarization.

For too long, governments have neglected this divide. Some put faith in trickle-down economics, others in a monetary-policy-driven revival of growth and employment, and still others in fiscal redistribution. But these solutions have delivered little respite.

Evidence speaks against the naive hope that prosperity will eventually reach all areas. Modern economic development relies heavily on interactions, which in turn require a high density of firms, skills, and innovators. It puts a premium on agglomeration, which is why larger cities tend to thrive, while smaller cities struggle. Once an area has started losing skills and firms, there is little hope that the trend will naturally reverse. Being without a job can quickly become the new normal.

Aggregate demand expansion hardly alleviates the pain. Even if it remains true that a rising tide lifts all boats, it does not do so in an even way. For those who feel left out, stronger national growth often means even more prosperity and dynamism in the better-off cities, and little, if any, gain for themselves – hence a sharper, even more unbearable divide. Growth itself has become divisive.

And whereas fiscal transfers help counter inequality and fight poverty, they do little to repair the social fabric. Furthermore, their long-term sustainability is increasingly in doubt.

In her inaugural address, British Prime Minister Theresa May committed herself to a “unionist” approach to the country’s economic and social woes. US presidential candidates have also rediscovered the strength of the demand for national and social cohesion. Similar concerns will no doubt be raised in the coming French presidential campaign. Yet, if the ends are clear, politicians are often clueless about the means.

In the US presidential campaign, trade protection is fashionable again. But, while import restrictions may alleviate the pain of some manufacturing districts, they will not prevent companies from relocating where growth opportunities are the strongest. They will not protect workers from technological change. And they will not recreate yesterday’s development patterns.

Most prominently in the UK, but elsewhere as well, economic migration is increasingly being called into question. But here, too, while restricting the entry of Eastern European workers may alleviate wage competition or stem the rise in housing prices, it will not change the relative fate of small and big cities.

Rather than claiming the opposite, politicians should acknowledge that there are no quick fixes to the uneven geography of modern economic development. Inconvenient as it may be, the rise of the metropolis is a fact – one that should not be resisted, because it is not a zero-sum game. Big cities do yield aggregate economic benefits.

What public policy must do is ensure that economic agglomeration does not threaten equality of opportunity. Governments cannot decide where companies locate; but it is their responsibility to ensure that, although where you live affects your income, where you were born does not determine your future. In other words, public policy has a major responsibility in limiting the correlation between geography and social mobility. As Raj Chetty of Stanford and others have shown, this is far from being the case in the US, and similar patterns can be observed in other countries.

Infrastructure can help. Efficient transportation, quality health services, and broadband Internet access can help smaller cities attract investment in sectors that do not rely on agglomeration effects. Back-office services, for example, may have an advantage in being located where office space and housing are cheap.

Finally, there is a case for limiting the selfishness of better-off areas. The distribution of competences between national and subnational levels, as well as the structure of taxation, was defined in a very different environment. To mitigate the geo-economic divide, they may have to be rethought fundamentally.

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2016 The Geography of Elections

Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry is a Professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin and currently serves as the French government's Commissioner-General for Policy Planning. He is a former director of Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u42198346ae 124dc10ce3a0 0 When Ideology Trumps Economic InterestsDani Rodrik
u4219834676e9f0d82cb8a5 2 The Competitiveness Trap: Why Only Shared Prosperity Delivers Economic Strength—and Resilience Against the Far RightMarija Bartl
u4219834676 bcba 6b2b3e733ce2 1 The End of an Era: What’s Next After Globalisation?Apostolos Thomadakis
u4219834674a bf1a 0f45ab446295 0 Germany’s Subcontracting Ban in the Meat IndustryŞerife Erol, Anneliese Kärcher, Thorsten Schulten and Manfred Walser

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp