Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • Strategic autonomy
    • War in Ukraine
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter

The new European civil war

Guido Montani 6th February 2023

However the war in Ukraine ends, a new iron curtain will follow unless the EU lives up to its ‘geopolitical’ aspirations.

European civil war,iron curtain,NATO,Ukraine,Gorbachev
Protesters at the Brandenburg Gate—for decades the symbol of Germany’s and Europe’s cold-war divide—on the day of the Russian invasion last year (Pani Garmyder / shutterstock.com)

The first and second world wars have been considered by many intellectuals and politicians ‘European civil wars’. The process of European unification was based on a widespread sentiment: no more wars in Europe.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reopened those wounds. The Russo-Ukrainian war is becoming chronic and the spectre of a world war can be glimpsed on the horizon: the west against Russia, China and other allies. The Nobel Peace Prize recognition awarded to the European Union in 2012, for having transformed a continent of war into a continent of peace, seems unjustified today.

The historian David Armitage has investigated the concept of civil war, starting from the Roman empire. Civil war for him is an armed conflict between populations that share a heritage of common values, which suggests the possibility of peace and reunification. It is ‘an aberration from any normal course of politics or “civilisation”’, while the ‘idea of “global” civil war carries with it an idea of universal humanity’.

The Russo-Ukrainian war can end in a defeat for Ukraine, a defeat for Russia or a peace-like stalemate, as between North and South Korea. In all three cases, however, a new ‘iron curtain’ will be erected in the heart of Europe. This would be a clear defeat for the EU and its founding value—peace.


Our job is keeping you informed!


Subscribe to our free newsletter and stay up to date with the latest Social Europe content. We will never send you spam and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Sign up here

‘Most fateful error’

It is necessary to recall the events that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, because the current situation originated in those years. In 1987, in Prague and Warsaw, the Soviet president, Mikhail Gorbachev, proposed a ‘common European home’. Gorbachev was aware that the problem of European security could not be left unresolved, following his inconclusive Reykjavik summit on nuclear weapons with his United States counterpart, Ronald Reagan, the previous year. After the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, Gorbachev asked the German chancellor, Helmut Kohl, and the US government, as a condition of his consent to German unification, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization not be extended eastwards to the countries of the Warsaw Pact—NATO’s Soviet-led, cold-war counterpart.

The last US ambassador to the USSR, Jack Matlock, was later to declare that ‘categorical assurances’ had been given by the Americans to Gorbachev that, if a united Germany were able to stay in NATO, ‘NATO would not be moved eastward’. In the debate which opened in the US on possible NATO enlargement to the east, George Kennan, father of the policy of ‘containment’ of the Soviet Union, stated that ‘pushing ahead with expansion would inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western, and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion, … have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy, and restore the atmosphere of Cold War to East-West relations’. It would, he said, ‘be the most fateful error of American foreign policy in the entire post-Cold War era’.

In 1992, in Maastricht, the member states of what was now to be called the European Union approved a treaty containing an article which provided for a European foreign and security policy, up to the creation of a European defence. After 30 years, however, little or nothing has been done to realise this.

Unresolved issues

The EU’s inertia is the real cause of the current crisis. The countries of the east asked for military security and they have obtained it from the US and NATO. They asked for economic aid and they obtained it by integrating into the EU. But the union fearfully avoided taking responsibility for foreign and security policy.

Today, a new European convention is in sight which could address these unresolved issues. In November 2021 the programme of the German Ampelkoalition said the Conference on the Future of Europe ‘should lead to a constitutional convention and the further development of a federal European state’ and the European Parliament called last June for a convention to permit treaty changes, notably to weaken national vetoes, necessary to implement the proposals from the conference. But voices are already being raised to avoid reforms that would transcend the acquired framework of economic-monetary integration.

There is discussion of ‘strategic autonomy’ in foreign policy but this hides the real problem from the citizens—European independence from the American protectorate. The transatlantic relationship should have become an equal partnership, as the former US president John F Kennedy hoped.

Partnership for Peace

To avoid the creation of a new iron curtain in Europe and to start a peace process between Russia and Ukraine, the EU must take an ‘autonomous’ initiative, for a continental peace plan which would allow all the parties to enjoy a future of peace and prosperity for their citizens. In 1994, NATO proposed a Partnership for Peace to Russia, to associate the new Russian state with discussions on European security. The continued extension of NATO to the east and the subordinate position of Russia in the discussions however put an end to this attempt.

A similar proposal could today have a different outcome if the EU were to assume the responsibility of proposing a conference along with the US, Russia and Ukraine to discuss, on an equal footing, a peace plan among all European countries. Citizens of the EU, while condemning the military invasion of Ukraine and the continuous bloodshed, including civilian casualties, consider Ukrainian citizens as European as Russian ones.


We need your support


Social Europe is an independent publisher and we believe in freely available content. For this model to be sustainable, however, we depend on the solidarity of our readers. Become a Social Europe member for less than 5 Euro per month and help us produce more articles, podcasts and videos. Thank you very much for your support!

Become a Social Europe Member

How can we ignore a culture that has given Pushkin, Tolstoy and Dostoevsky to universal literature? And how can Russian citizens forget the contributions of western-European culture, from Peter the Great onwards, which manifest themselves in the architectural style of the palaces from St Petersburg to Odesa and the marvellous collection of renaissance works of art in the Hermitage museum?

If the model of Partnership for Peace proves insufficient to solve current problems, one could resort to that of the 1973 meeting in Helsinki of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Involving all European countries, the US and the USSR, this generated two years later the ‘Helsinki accords’ which provided the framework for the formation two decades on of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

Disastrous consequences

The crucial problem is not however diplomatic, but political: US foreign policy, still based on the ‘America first’ goal, is at issue. In most of the world’s population, the military bloc of NATO, led by the US, is considered a form of global neo-imperialism. This perception is cleverly exploited by Russia and China to extend their economic and military influence, as evidenced by the South African government’s recent announcement of joint military drills with the two countries later this month—around the anniversary of the Russian invasion.

As long as the war in Europe continues, the world arms race will intensify, including in nuclear weapons. The consequences on the international economic front are disastrous. While the transition from polluting to sustainable energies is urgent, governments are increasing investments in armaments, skimping on funds for environmental damage for the poorest countries and introducing new barriers to international trade. The Economist observed last month: ‘As the logic of efficiency and comparative advantage gives way to a focus on security and economic nationalism, investments will be duplicated and costs will rise. The result will be higher bills for taxpayers and consumers and therefore diminished prosperity.’

Finally, the United Nations is going through a deep crisis. The Security Council is paralysed by vetoes among its permanent members. The World Trade Organization has meanwhile been effectively deprived by the US of its mechanism for settling international disputes, thus leaving the stronger countries free to prevail over the weaker.

Can Europe find the courage to reverse the return of nationalism in the world? A vacuum of power and action could be filled by an international military confrontation that would overwhelm the fragile European construction.

Guido Montani
Guido Montani

Guido Montani is professor of international political economy at the University of Pavia. He is a former president of the European Federalist Movement in Italy. His latest book is Antropocene, nazionalismo e cosmopolitismo: Prospettive per i cittadini del mondo (Mimesis, 2022).

You are here: Home / Politics / The new European civil war

Most Popular Posts

meritocracy The myth of meritocracy and the populist threatLisa Pelling
consultants,consultancies,McKinsey Consultants and the crisis of capitalismMariana Mazzucato and Rosie Collington
France,pension reform What’s driving the social crisis in FranceGuillaume Duval
earthquake,Turkey,Erdogan Turkey-Syria earthquake: scandal of being unpreparedDavid Rothery
European civil war,iron curtain,NATO,Ukraine,Gorbachev The new European civil warGuido Montani

Most Recent Posts

global south,Ukraine Winning in Ukraine, losing the global south?Werner Raza
Sunak,strikes,Britons,Britain,UK,cost of living Suave Sunak cold comfort for impoverished BritonsPaul Mason
persons with disabilities,people with disabilities,European Disability Card Equal citizenship for persons with disabilitiesAntoine Fobe
gas,IPCC Will this be the last European Gas Conference?Pascoe Sabido
water Confronting the global water crisisMariana Mazzucato, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Johan Rockström and 1 more

Other Social Europe Publications

front cover scaled Towards a social-democratic century?
Cover e1655225066994 National recovery and resilience plans
Untitled design The transatlantic relationship
Women Corona e1631700896969 500 Women and the coronavirus crisis
sere12 1 RE No. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden?

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Let’s end involuntary unemployment!

What is the best way to fight unemployment? We want to know your opinion, to understand better the potential of an EU-wide permanent programme for direct and guaranteed public-service employment.

In collaboration with Our Global Moment, Fondazione Pietro Nenni and other progressive organisations across Europe, we launched an EU-wide survey on the perception of unemployment and publicly funded jobs, exploring ways to bring innovation in public sector-led job creation.


TAKE THE SURVEY HERE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

The macroeconomic effects of re-applying the EU fiscal rules

Against the background of the European Commission's reform plans for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), this policy brief uses the macroeconometric multi-country model NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of the most relevant reform options from 2024 onwards. Next to a return to the existing and unreformed rules, the most prominent options include an expenditure rule linked to a debt anchor.

Our results for the euro area and its four biggest economies—France, Italy, Germany and Spain—indicate that returning to the rules of the SGP would lead to severe cuts in public spending, particularly if the SGP rules were interpreted as in the past. A more flexible interpretation would only somewhat ease the fiscal-adjustment burden. An expenditure rule along the lines of the European Fiscal Board would, however, not necessarily alleviate that burden in and of itself.

Our simulations show great care must be taken to specify the expenditure rule, such that fiscal consolidation is achieved in a growth-friendly way. Raising the debt ceiling to 90 per cent of gross domestic product and applying less demanding fiscal adjustments, as proposed by the IMK, would go a long way.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ILO advertisement

Global Wage Report 2022-23: The impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power

The International Labour Organization's Global Wage Report is a key reference on wages and wage inequality for the academic community and policy-makers around the world.

This eighth edition of the report, The Impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power, examines the evolution of real wages, giving a unique picture of wage trends globally and by region. The report includes evidence on how wages have evolved through the COVID-19 crisis as well as how the current inflationary context is biting into real wage growth in most regions of the world. The report shows that for the first time in the 21st century real wage growth has fallen to negative values while, at the same time, the gap between real productivity growth and real wage growth continues to widen.

The report analysis the evolution of the real total wage bill from 2019 to 2022 to show how its different components—employment, nominal wages and inflation—have changed during the COVID-19 crisis and, more recently, during the cost-of-living crisis. The decomposition of the total wage bill, and its evolution, is shown for all wage employees and distinguishes between women and men. The report also looks at changes in wage inequality and the gender pay gap to reveal how COVID-19 may have contributed to increasing income inequality in different regions of the world. Together, the empirical evidence in the report becomes the backbone of a policy discussion that could play a key role in a human-centred recovery from the different ongoing crises.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ETUI advertisement

The four transitions and the missing one

Europe is at a crossroads, painfully navigating four transitions (green, digital, economic and geopolitical) at once but missing the transformative and ambitious social transition it needs. In other words, if the EU is to withstand the storm, we do not have the luxury of abstaining from reflecting on its social foundations, of which intermittent democratic discontent is only one expression. It is against this background that the ETUI/ETUC publishes its annual flagship publication Benchmarking Working Europe 2023, with the support of more than 70 graphs and a special contribution from two guest editors, Professors Kalypso Nikolaidïs and Albena Azmanova.


DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

#AskTheExpert webinar—Key ingredients for the future of work: job quality and gender equality

Eurofound’s head of information and communication, Mary McCaughey, its senior research manager, Agnès Parent-Thirion, and research manager, Jorge Cabrita, explore the findings from the recently published European Working Conditions Telephone Survey (EWCTS) in an #AskTheExpert webinar. This survey of more than 70,000 workers in 36 European countries provides a wide-ranging picture of job quality across countries, occupations, sectors and age groups and by gender in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. It confirms persistent gender segregation in sectors, occupations and workplaces, indicating that we are a long way from the goals of equal opportunities for women and men at work and equal access to key decision-making positions in the workplace.


WATCH HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us

RSS Feed

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube