Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

The Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than The Financial One

Wolfgang Kowalsky 12th September 2018

Wolfgang Kowalsky

Wolfgang Kowalsky

Economists have been pretty silent over the summer. It has probably been too hot to come up with new ideas. Generally speaking, most of them are more passionate about 2% inflation or ½% growth and other economic key figures than about the 2% rise in the Earth’s temperature.

This summer, wildfires spread all over Europe and the world and not a day passed by without thousands of firefighters battling blazes, with soldiers being dispatched for support against the unprecedented speed and expansion of fires.    Many countries offered support and sent experienced firefighters. However, the resources available to respond cannot cope with the multitude of fires burning ever more quickly and expansively over longer periods of time. Choking smoke makes it impossible for people to stay in the neighbourhood.

When reading the Press, a majority of the reports on the fires send out warnings against being too quick to link the hot summer to climate change. There seems to be a consensus that it might well be a seasonal variation and there has always been extreme weather, as, for instance, in 1540. They nearly all add that much more evidence is needed to have definitive proof of climate change.

These underlying messages are somewhat disturbing. They are probably right: it is not fake news to say that the final proof will be a burning uninhabitable globe. But is it reasonable to wait for the final proof and to continue to emit CO2 without any incentive for a change of course? There are all-time records of heatwaves in many parts of the world and in particular temperature records during the night. It cannot be overlooked that glaciers and polar ice caps are melting, the sea level is rising, coastal and island regions are flooding, areas of drought expanding. All the facts are on the table. Climatologists warn that these developments might be irreversible.

The challenge requires a systematic response, by politicians, economists and climatologists – and other key stakeholders. The problem is that this response might fail and the same errors as with the financial crisis which nobody saw coming or predicted. As always there are winners and losers – and many who do not feel concerned and will join the rank and file of climate change deniers. The easiest justification for not caring is to deny climate change and so to exculpate the polluters. Who is ready to leave the comfort zone? It is easier to name those who are unwilling:

  • Maritime and air transport has succeeded, thanks to intense lobbying, in being excluded from CO2 targets
  • Agro-chemical industry avoids including externalities
  • Environmental dumping continues
  • Fourth industrial revolution is seen through the lens of growth potential
  • Over-exploitation of natural resources and oceans continues, etc. etc.

All climatologists agree that only by dividing CO2 emissions by factor 4 could the climate catastrophe be stopped. Factor 4 must be reached in 2030, i.e. almost tomorrow. Is this shrinking of CO2 emissions possible without accepting the de-growth paradigm? Digitalisation could be the necessary tool to steer de-growth in an intelligent, fair, social, inclusive, egalitarian, and sustainable manner. A conceptual revolution is necessary, or civilisation will face its demise.

The next crisis will be climatic and worse than the financial one. The financial markets crisis could be addressed by the responsible actors such as monetary authorities, finance ministers and central banks. There is no such key actor for the approaching climate crisis. Some peripheral action from national authorities has been reported such as drafting emergency plans to deal with heatwaves, to improve fighting of forest fires, to better equip fire brigades, to dispose of more firefighting airplanes – this and much more is necessary but not sufficient, it‘s like a drop of water on a burning planet.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



What is urgently needed is a holistic approach, a vision of how to preserve a sustainable earth, not only for us but for our children and future generations. It is time to step outside of the comfort zone before it is too late. We need an action program not only for the willing but for all the core countries with high CO2 emissions and we need strong leadership to push it through. This necessary and urgent action program will probably demand painful adaptations to the new situation, going through to all levels – global, European, national, regional, local. Who will take the lead?

Wolfgang Kowalsky

Wolfgang Kowalsky is a policy adviser working in the trade union movement in Brussels.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u4219834dafae1dc3 2 EU’s New Fiscal Rules: Balancing Budgets with Green and Digital AmbitionsPhilipp Heimberger
u42198346d1f0048 1 The Dangerous Metaphor of Unemployment “Scarring”Tom Boland and Ray Griffin
u4219834675 4ff1 998a 404323c89144 1 Why Progressive Governments Keep Failing — And How to Finally Win Back VotersMariana Mazzucato
u42198346ec 111f 473a 80ad b5d0688fffe9 1 A Transatlantic Reckoning: Why Europe Needs a New Pact Beyond Defence SpendingChristophe Sente
u4219834671f 3 Trade Unions Resist EU Bid to Weaken Corporate Sustainability LawsSocial Europe

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp