Austria’s Conservatives Trapped: Coalition or Collapse?

The ÖVP’s’ coalition gamble failed, leaving Austrian politics adrift.

More than 130 days after Austria’s national elections, the country remains without a new government. Hopes for a stable coalition have once again dimmed, largely due to the conservative People’s Party’s political gamble and months of inept manoeuvring. Following the collapse of coalition talks in early January between the People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberal Neos, the ÖVP executed a dramatic U-turn after the resignation of its leader and former chancellor, Karl Nehammer.

Despite campaign pledges ruling out cooperation with the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by the hardline Herbert Kickl, the ÖVP’s new leadership swiftly reversed course. Under pressure from business interests who reportedly viewed a right-wing coalition more favourably, the People’s Party, under Christian Stocker, abandoned its previously unified stance. Within days of the FPÖ receiving the president’s mandate to lead coalition talks, the ÖVP entered negotiations with its only viable partner.

Initial progress was made, particularly on the pressing budget deficit, which had derailed earlier negotiations. But talks soon ground to a halt. The far right’s demand for control of key ministries, coupled with its well-known antagonism towards independent media and the European Union, proved too much for the conservatives. Despite several alternative proposals from the ÖVP, Kickl held firm. Ultimately, the FPÖ walked away, accusing the conservatives of being impossible partners.

For voters, the past few weeks have painted a damning picture of a People’s Party that was once central to Austria’s governance. Having abandoned the Social Democrats at the negotiating table, the ÖVP’s belief that it could tame the far right and form a viable, democratic coalition has backfired spectacularly. Worse still, the final stages of the talks descended into farce. Negotiators misled the press, sneaking out of meetings through backdoors while publicly pretending discussions continued. Meanwhile, both sides issued thinly veiled insults via the media. The result is a disgraceful portrait of Austrian politics.

Although the SPÖ and Neos have offered to resume talks with the ÖVP, success is far from assured. Their initial negotiations collapsed, and the underlying disagreements—particularly over economic policy and the budget deficit—remain unresolved. Yet the spectre of fresh elections looms large. The far right is surging in the polls, buoyed by its September victory, and is better positioned financially for a campaign. For the other parties, a return to the ballot box would likely be both politically and financially ruinous. This may push them towards a deal, however fraught.

Still, any coalition excluding the far right must offer more than mere stability. It needs a compelling programme that inspires voters and transcends the tired pattern of political drift that has defined Austrian governance in recent years.

Meanwhile, Kickl and the FPÖ are already mobilising for snap elections, eager to exploit the ÖVP’s failure. They are portraying the People’s Party as power-hungry and unprincipled—a characterisation that resonates with many Austrians after years of scandal and drift.

The ÖVP’s decline is not sudden but the result of long-term failings. Its slide began under Sebastian Kurz, the party’s charismatic Wunderkind, who shifted the conservatives sharply to the right. Kurz’s anti-immigration stance temporarily blunted the rise of the far right. But it also legitimised their rhetoric and brought their ideas into the political mainstream. When Kurz resigned in 2021 under a cloud of corruption allegations, he left a party adrift—bereft of leadership and lacking a clear identity.

In Kurz’s absence, the ÖVP limped through a coalition with the Greens, only to be soundly beaten by the far right in 2024. Without Kurz’s personal appeal and messaging prowess, the party’s rightward turn was exposed as empty mimicry. As the late French far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen once said: voters prefer the original to the copy.

The ÖVP’s 2024 campaign as the “stable centre” rang hollow. Worse, the party’s swift abandonment of its core promise—no coalition with Kickl’s FPÖ—underscored its loss of identity and moral clarity. It appeared neither stable nor principled.

The party’s inability to forge a coalition of the centre now threatens not only its future but also Austria’s democratic fabric. A robust, democratic centre-right is vital to political stability. If the ÖVP cannot recover, who will represent Austria’s conservative democratic voters? And where will they turn?

Across Europe, the far right is gaining ground. Centre-right parties face a stark choice: reclaim their democratic identity, or risk being supplanted by the forces they once sought to contain.