Whatever the outcome of the ongoing standoff over Trump’s plan for Ukraine—even if Ukrainians and Europeans ultimately succeed in removing the most scandalous aspects of this “peace” plan dictated by Moscow—this episode will have marked the definitive demise of the “Turnberry strategy”. This policy of appeasement towards Donald Trump, consistently pursued by European leaders since last January, culminated in the agreement on US tariffs announced at Turnberry Golf Club in Scotland last July.
This appeasement strategy was chosen by the President of the European Commission, but she has been consistently supported in this by key European leaders such as Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Giorgia Meloni. The policy has been pursued across all issues: not only customs duties, but also digital technology, the taxation of multinationals, the social responsibility of large companies, rearmament, Europe’s energy supply, and beyond.
This decision to keep a low profile in the face of the American president has brought absolutely nothing to the Union and to Europeans. Its only effect has been to reinforce the idea, already well established among Donald Trump and his entourage, that the European Union was so weak and incapable of reacting that there was no need to take it into account. This includes issues such as Ukraine, which are of primary concern to Europe’s security and future: the Trump administration feels able to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin on this subject without consulting the Europeans, then impose it on them.
A Necessary Paradigm Shift
The current episode demands a paradigm shift, a Copernican revolution among European leaders. It has been definitively proven that Donald Trump’s United States is no longer an ally, as they still stubbornly believe, but rather an adversary of the European Union and its fundamental values. European leaders must now act accordingly.
Are there not divisions and contradictions within the Trump administration and the Republican camp that we could hope to exploit? Of course there are, as always. But the core of this administration—the President, his Vice-President, and their direct confidants such as Steve Witkoff—are clearly determined opponents of the EU. Those who might be less hostile to us, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio or General Keith Kellogg, Special Envoy for Ukraine, are becoming increasingly marginalised.
Isn’t this just a bad patch to endure while we wait for the mid-terms and the next presidential election? Only time will tell, and we will see in particular whether these mid-terms can truly be held under acceptable democratic conditions despite the creeping slide into authoritarianism led by Donald Trump. But it would be extremely risky to pin all our hopes on such an outcome. In the meantime, decisions with far-reaching consequences are being taken. Even if the forms this takes with Donald Trump are extreme, the movement that is increasingly distancing the United States from Europe is structural and unlikely to be reversed in the future.
From Appeasement to Strategic Confrontation
Considering the Trump administration as an adversary of Europe does not, of course, mean that we should immediately fall out with the United States on all fronts at once. The American commitment in the field of European security remains particularly indispensable at this stage, and we must not take the initiative to accelerate the ongoing disengagement. But on many other issues, we must finally stop backing down under pressure from Donald Trump and agree to confront him.
We must stand firm on digital regulation and the taxation of American multinationals. We must suspend the association agreement with Israel, sanction the Netanyahu government, and finally support the International Criminal Court and its judges against American sanctions. We must move closer to other developed countries in order to respond in a coordinated manner to the hostile initiatives of Donald Trump’s United States.
We must also turn much more towards Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and all the emerging countries that want to save multilateralism from the demolition work undertaken by Donald Trump. Finally, we must reach an agreement with China to jointly pursue an active global policy to combat climate change, despite and against the United States. In short, Europeans must stop hiding in their own shadows and finally emerge from the paralysis imposed on them by a totally obsolete Atlanticist mindset.
This observation has particularly major consequences for France. If a president and a majority aligned with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin come to power in France in 2027, none of the above could be implemented, and Europe would be at serious risk of ending up entirely subservient to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Despite all the differences they may have on many other issues, all French democrats opposed to both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin must therefore work together to prevent this from happening. The future of Europe and the survival of the European project are at stake.
Guillaume Duval is adviser to the Jacques Delors Institute, former editor-in-chief of Alternatives Economiques and former speechwriter of HRVP Josep Borell.
