Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

It’s about the sausage

Paul Emtsev 24th September 2021

Ahead of the Bundestag elections on Sunday, just how did Olaf Scholz become the top candidate to be chancellor?

Olaf Scholz,SPD,Bundestag election,chancellor
Merkel’s natural successor? (photocosmos1/shutterstock.com)

The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) has lived through hard times. Governing the country as part of the GroKo (grand coalition) with the conservative CDU/CSU union since 2013, the social democrats were constantly struggling not to lose their profile under the Christian-democrat chancellor, Angela Merkel. With Merkel’s ability to incorporate social-democratic positions into her policy, public support for the SPD continually declined, reaching a low of only 11 per cent in the polls at the end of 2019.

Back then, political commentators widely agreed that the SPD had lost its status as one of the main ‘people’s parties’ (Volksparteien). Now, with the elections to the Bundestag on Sunday, the SPD has surpassed all parties, lying around 4 per cent ahead of the CDU/CSU. And German voters have clearly indicated that they want the SPD candidate for chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to be Merkel’s successor. How could this have happened?

Not pleasant

The SPD had to suffer a lot during the last electoral term. For Scholz, acting vice-chancellor and federal minister of finance, the last few years were not particularly pleasant either.

With the publication in October 2018 of the so-called ‘CumEx’ files, documenting large-scale tax evasion in Germany, the finance ministry came under heavy criticism. In November 2019, Scholz lost the election for chair of his party—being vice-chancellor, this was seen as a shameful failure. In light of the low percentages for the SPD in the polls, the new joint heads of the party, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, went so far as  to query the appointment of an SPD chancellor candidate for the next federal election at all. In June 2020 a further scandal, around the illegal business practices of the German company Wirecard, shook up the Ministry of Finance again, leading to big losses for investors. And many critics made Scholz responsible for not having prevented such a financial fraud.

Still, in May 2021—due to a lack of realistic alternatives—Scholz was elected as the chancellor candidate of the SPD. In the polls the party continued to stagnate at around 15 per cent and Scholz’s constantly-repeated ambition to become chancellor was treated as one of the best running jokes in German politics. Yet now, in comparison with his two main rivals, Annalena Baerbock of the Greens and Armin Laschet of the CDU, he is widely perceived as the one who should next occupy the chancellery.

Scholz’s unexpected rise is based on three pillars: strategy, personality … and experience with sausages.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



The ‘Scholzomat’

Critics used to call Scholz the ‘Scholzomat’, because he apparently behaved like a robot. But at least he understands that elections are not a sprint—more an exhausting combination of marathon and hurdle race.

The last SPD chancellor candidate, in 2017, the former president of the European Parliament Martin Schulz, might have a very similar name but started at a very different pace. After his nomination more than half a year before the federal elections, the SPD soared in the polls and the media spoke of the ‘Schulz train’ (Schulz-Zug).

Schulz was praised as the SPD candidate who would finally take over from Merkel after three terms, with at one point half of Germans polled favouring him for the job (only a third preferring that Merkel remain). On election night, however, it became clear that the ‘Schulz train’ had lost momentum, arriving at its destination with only 20.5 per cent for the SPD. 

Scholz did the opposite. For months after his designation as the official candidate, the public did not really hear anything spectacular from him. Even though the media and the voters clearly didn’t believe in the SPD any more, he did … nothing. While others might have let emotions take over and given up or taken risky measures to gain some attention in the polls, he just continued to repeat: ‘I want to become German chancellor.’ On the eve of the election, miraculously it seems many Germans want that too.

Standing his ground

This stoic repetition of intent could have had a hypnotising effect. But more generally, the persistence Scholz displayed showed his character as a person who stands his ground, even if the wind is blowing in the wrong direction. None of his competitors dropped out of the race. But the big difference between Scholz and the rest was that, even at the peak of public attention and electoral stress, he let the others make the mistakes—no matter how boring that made him look.

His ability to avoid major scandals during the campaign is especially noteworthy, as he is implicated in two parliamentary committee investigations, about CumEx and Wirecard. In March, Scholz also promised that he personally would took care of preparations for the vaccine rollout, announcing ‘ten million doses per week’—a number that would not be reached.

But Scholz somehow finds rhetorical ways of detaching himself from any personal responsibility by framing possible wrongdoings as technical or administrative processes, not as individual decisions. That makes everything so boring few seem eager to dig deeper. In the end, it is easier for political observers to take note of all his great plans for the future—and forget that his party has actually been in power for a while already.

Being the vice-chancellor since 2017 doesn’t necessarily make Scholz stand out as a candidate for radical change. Even the most interesting election programme could not hide the fact that he and his party already had quite a lot of time to do things better. But Scholz would not be the matchwinner of the campaign with his political agenda anyway. His main asset might simply be his personal appearance.

After the television ‘truels’ between the three chancellor candidates—Baerbock, Laschet and Scholz—surveys clearly indicated that Scholz was perceived as the most competent and trustworthy performer. It was not that he told viewers anything new: all his political statements coincided with the SPD‘s electoral programme, published back in May.

It might rather be his rhetoric that gives the impression of competence and trustworthiness: a clear, calm voice, a talking speed that is not too fast and not too slow, a very stable body language with slow hand movements and a facial expression revealing nothing but inner calm, no matter how strong the accusations against him. It is in this most extreme display of professional normality that Scholz has outplayed Baerbock and Laschet by far.

As banal as it sounds, being boring might be his major competitive advantage. But even if all the external prejudices about German culture would then be vindicated, is that really enough to win a federal election?

Avoiding experiments

The German language knows a lot of metaphors and of course many are connected to very German things. When it comes to a situation where things are to be decided—a final showdown— Germans used to say: ‘Now it’s about the sausage’ (Jetzt geht’s um die Wurst). As a politician, Scholz is very German in this regard, because he is very experienced with situations that are about the sausage.

He also knows German voters very well. Because when it’s about the sausage, Germans tend to avoid experiments.

Ahead of an election which will conclude 16 years of Merkel as chancellor, German voters have discovered that, actually, Scholz is not so different from Merkel. He stands for political normality, for bureaucratic expertise and for very rational, predictable behaviour.

This obvious alignment with Merkel‘s political style is surely no coincidence. Scholz’s implicit presentation as Merkel’s natural successor went so far that she had publicly to confirm that he and she were not the same person. But that didn’t seem to change much the public support for a future chancellor Scholz.

Because, no matter the political challenges ahead, when it’s about the sausage Germans prefer not to change the recipe.

Pics 1
Paul Emtsev

Paul Emtsev is a public-communication consultant and conflict moderator in Germany. During his studies in Munich, Montreal, London and Moscow, he specialised in political discourse analysis and international communication.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u4219834dafae1dc3 2 EU’s New Fiscal Rules: Balancing Budgets with Green and Digital AmbitionsPhilipp Heimberger
u42198346d1f0048 1 The Dangerous Metaphor of Unemployment “Scarring”Tom Boland and Ray Griffin
u4219834675 4ff1 998a 404323c89144 1 Why Progressive Governments Keep Failing — And How to Finally Win Back VotersMariana Mazzucato
u42198346ec 111f 473a 80ad b5d0688fffe9 1 A Transatlantic Reckoning: Why Europe Needs a New Pact Beyond Defence SpendingChristophe Sente
u4219834671f 3 Trade Unions Resist EU Bid to Weaken Corporate Sustainability LawsSocial Europe

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Summer issue of The Progressive Post is out!


It is time to take action and to forge a path towards a Socialist renewal.


European Socialists struggle to balance their responsibilities with the need to take bold positions and actions in the face of many major crises, while far-right political parties are increasingly gaining ground. Against this background, we offer European progressive forces food for thought on projecting themselves into the future.


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss the transformative power of European Social Democracy, examine the far right’s efforts to redesign education systems to serve its own political agenda and highlight the growing threat of anti-gender movements to LGBTIQ+ rights – among other pressing topics.

READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

BlueskyXWhatsApp