Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • Strategic autonomy
    • War in Ukraine
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter

Ukraine and the future of Europe

Joschka Fischer 31st January 2022

Vladimir Putin’s indulgence of his imperial impulses has far-reaching implications for Europe’s place in the world.

Putin,Ukraine,Russia
Railing against the west—Russian forces massing at the Ukraine border (Corona Borealis Studio / shutterstock.com)

What will happen when Russia’s deployment of troops along the Ukrainian border is complete? Will the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, give the order to attack in his effort to deprive one of Russia’s neighbours—a sovereign state and a member of the United Nations and the Council of Europe—of its independence and force it back under the Kremlin’s yoke?

We still don’t know, but the facts overwhelmingly point to an impending war. Should that happen, the consequences for Europe would be profound, calling into question the European order and the principles—renunciation of violence, self-determination, the inviolability of borders and territorial integrity—on which it has been based since the end of the cold war.

Owing to violent aggression on Russia’s part, Europe would once again be divided into two spheres: a ‘Russian Europe’ in the east and the Europe of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the western and central parts of the continent. Imperial interests would once again be set against those of democracies working together under a common rule of law.

Worse, because words, bonds, commitments and treaties would no longer be trusted, there would be increased rearmament for self-protection and a complete reorganisation of economic relations, particularly in the energy sector. Europe would no longer be able to risk the kind of economic dependencies that allow it to be blackmailed during crises. While a reorganisation of economic relations would be costly for the EU, there would be no other option. The only alternative would be submission and surrender of Europe’s own principles.


Our job is keeping you informed!


Subscribe to our free newsletter and stay up to date with the latest Social Europe content. We will never send you spam and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Sign up here

Revisionist power

At the heart of the current crisis is the fact that Russia, under Putin, has become a revisionist power. Not only is it no longer interested in maintaining the status quo; it is willing to threaten and even use military force to change the status quo in its favour.

If Europe were to submit to these imperial impulses, it would betray its most fundamental values and would have to renounce the way Europeans live and want to live. It would mean giving up all the progress for which the EU stands. The consequences are unthinkable and thus entirely unacceptable.

Russia’s demands show precisely what is really at issue in the Ukrainian conflict. Putin wants NATO to abandon its open-door policy not only in eastern Europe but also in Scandinavia (vis-à-vis the neutral EU member states Sweden and Finland). This is not about Russia’s supposed encirclement by NATO. It is about the restoration of the Russian empire and Putin’s existential fear of democracy taking root and spreading. At stake in the Ukrainian crisis is the right to self-determination—the prerogative of all sovereign countries to choose their own alliances.

Putin desperately wants to erase the humiliation of the Soviet Union’s demise and Russia’s historic loss of global power. In his view, the Russian empire must rise again and make itself recognised. This aspiration immediately involves Europe, because Russia has never been a global power without first becoming a hegemonic force in Europe. Today, Ukraine’s independence is on the chopping block. Tomorrow, it will be the other post-Soviet states; and, after that, domination of Europe awaits. Europeans who know their history should be all too familiar with this pattern.

Geopolitical rivalry

Given the implications of Putin’s agenda, one wonders what Europe is waiting for. What more needs to happen before Europeans wake up to the facts? If there was ever a time to put aside petty conflicts, it is now. The EU must become a power in its own right if its principles are to survive in a world of renewed great-power politics and geopolitical rivalry. Those principles are being directly threatened. When will it defend them?

To be sure, the importance of the US security guarantee in Europe is obvious under the current circumstances. But if transatlanticism is to endure, Europe itself must become stronger. That will require Germany—first and foremost—to rethink its role. It is and will remain Europe’s largest member state, economically and demographically.

Given the magnitude of today’s threats, is a German domestic dispute about the promise of the former government to spend at least 2 per cent of its gross domestic produt on defence really an issue anymore? Or is it now more important that the German government issue a clear and positive statement about its commitment to the support of Ukraine and defence of European principles? That would send a message that the Kremlin could not misunderstand. But time is running out.

Republication forbidden—copyright Project Syndicate 2022, ‘Ukraine and the future of Europe’


We need your support


Social Europe is an independent publisher and we believe in freely available content. For this model to be sustainable, however, we depend on the solidarity of our readers. Become a Social Europe member for less than 5 Euro per month and help us produce more articles, podcasts and videos. Thank you very much for your support!

Become a Social Europe Member

Joschka Fischer 1
Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer was Germany’s foreign minister and vice-chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and a leader in the German Green Party for almost 20 years.

You are here: Home / Politics / Ukraine and the future of Europe

Most Popular Posts

Visentini,ITUC,Qatar,Fight Impunity,50,000 Visentini, ‘Fight Impunity’, the ITUC and QatarFrank Hoffer
Russian soldiers' mothers,war,Ukraine The Ukraine war and Russian soldiers’ mothersJennifer Mathers and Natasha Danilova
IGU,documents,International Gas Union,lobby,lobbying,sustainable finance taxonomy,green gas,EU,COP ‘Gaslighting’ Europe on fossil fuelsFaye Holder
Schengen,Fortress Europe,Romania,Bulgaria Romania and Bulgaria stuck in EU’s second tierMagdalena Ulceluse
income inequality,inequality,Gini,1 per cent,elephant chart,elephant Global income inequality: time to revise the elephantBranko Milanovic

Most Recent Posts

Pakistan,flooding,floods Flooded Pakistan, symbol of climate injusticeZareen Zahid Qureshi
reality check,EU foreign policy,Russia Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: a reality check for the EUHeidi Mauer, Richard Whitman and Nicholas Wright
permanent EU investment fund,Recovery and Resilience Facility,public investment,RRF Towards a permanent EU investment fundPhilipp Heimberger and Andreas Lichtenberger
sustainability,SDGs,Finland Embedding sustainability in a government programmeJohanna Juselius
social dialogue,social partners Social dialogue must be at the heart of Europe’s futureClaes-Mikael Ståhl

Other Social Europe Publications

front cover scaled Towards a social-democratic century?
Cover e1655225066994 National recovery and resilience plans
Untitled design The transatlantic relationship
Women Corona e1631700896969 500 Women and the coronavirus crisis
sere12 1 RE No. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden?

ILO advertisement

Global Wage Report 2022-23: The impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power

The International Labour Organization's Global Wage Report is a key reference on wages and wage inequality for the academic community and policy-makers around the world.

This eighth edition of the report, The Impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power, examines the evolution of real wages, giving a unique picture of wage trends globally and by region. The report includes evidence on how wages have evolved through the COVID-19 crisis as well as how the current inflationary context is biting into real wage growth in most regions of the world. The report shows that for the first time in the 21st century real wage growth has fallen to negative values while, at the same time, the gap between real productivity growth and real wage growth continues to widen.

The report analysis the evolution of the real total wage bill from 2019 to 2022 to show how its different components—employment, nominal wages and inflation—have changed during the COVID-19 crisis and, more recently, during the cost-of-living crisis. The decomposition of the total wage bill, and its evolution, is shown for all wage employees and distinguishes between women and men. The report also looks at changes in wage inequality and the gender pay gap to reveal how COVID-19 may have contributed to increasing income inequality in different regions of the world. Together, the empirical evidence in the report becomes the backbone of a policy discussion that could play a key role in a human-centred recovery from the different ongoing crises.


DOWNLOAD HERE

ETUI advertisement

The EU recovery strategy: a blueprint for a more Social Europe or a house of cards?

This new ETUI paper explores the European Union recovery strategy, with a focus on its potentially transformative aspects vis-à-vis European integration and its implications for the social dimension of the EU’s socio-economic governance. In particular, it reflects on whether the agreed measures provide sufficient safeguards against the spectre of austerity and whether these constitute steps away from treating social and labour policies as mere ‘variables’ of economic growth.


DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Eurofound webinar: Making telework work for everyone

Since 2020 more European workers and managers have enjoyed greater flexibility and autonomy in work and are reporting their preference for hybrid working. Also driven by technological developments and structural changes in employment, organisations are now integrating telework more permanently into their workplace.

To reflect on these shifts, on 6 December Eurofound researchers Oscar Vargas and John Hurley explored the challenges and opportunities of the surge in telework, as well as the overall growth of telework and teleworkable jobs in the EU and what this means for workers, managers, companies and policymakers.


WATCH THE WEBINAR HERE

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

The winter issue of the Progressive Post magazine from FEPS is out!

The sequence of recent catastrophes has thrust new words into our vocabulary—'polycrisis', for example, even 'permacrisis'. These challenges have multiple origins, reinforce each other and cannot be tackled individually. But could they also be opportunities for the EU?

This issue offers compelling analyses on the European health union, multilateralism and international co-operation, the state of the union, political alternatives to the narrative imposed by the right and much more!


DOWNLOAD HERE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

The macroeconomic effects of re-applying the EU fiscal rules

Against the background of the European Commission's reform plans for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), this policy brief uses the macroeconometric multi-country model NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of the most relevant reform options from 2024 onwards. Next to a return to the existing and unreformed rules, the most prominent options include an expenditure rule linked to a debt anchor.

Our results for the euro area and its four biggest economies—France, Italy, Germany and Spain—indicate that returning to the rules of the SGP would lead to severe cuts in public spending, particularly if the SGP rules were interpreted as in the past. A more flexible interpretation would only somewhat ease the fiscal-adjustment burden. An expenditure rule along the lines of the European Fiscal Board would, however, not necessarily alleviate that burden in and of itself.

Our simulations show great care must be taken to specify the expenditure rule, such that fiscal consolidation is achieved in a growth-friendly way. Raising the debt ceiling to 90 per cent of gross domestic product and applying less demanding fiscal adjustments, as proposed by the IMK, would go a long way.


DOWNLOAD HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us

RSS Feed

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube