Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

A social-democratic decade ahead?

Robert Misik 20th June 2022

Now Austria’s SPÖ too has left its competitors far behind, Robert Misik asks: is the Zeitgeist moving to the left?

At the beginning of the year, the newly elected co-chair of the German SPD, Lars Klingbeil, said success in last September‘s Bundestag elections was one thing—but what was really at stake was a ‘social-democratic decade’. Nothing less than a new, formative era should begin when Olaf Scholz became chancellor.

This may sound a bit pompous and overblown but there are more unbiased observers who believe a social-democratic Zeitgeist is possible. Let’s take a look at the European political picture.

Social hegemony

Social-democratic parties are in government across Scandinavia—in Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark—with the majority of prime-ministerial posts held by a new generation of women. Social democrats are also in power in Germany and the Iberian peninsula.

In Portugal the charismatic António Costa is something of a role model for a social democracy which can not only secure strategic political majorities but also establish a social hegemony in a more profound sense. In Spain meanwhile the left coalition is pursuing an ambitious course of socio-political reform, in the teeth of bitter resistance not only from the far right but also the conservative Partido Popular.

Nor should France be overlooked: although the French socialists have been in a kind of coma for years, the recent election rounds brought a leftward shift. Emmanuel Macron had come under pressure precisely because of his centrist course and the presidential contest was by no means a triumphant vindication of his incumbency.

Whatever one may think of the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and his new Nupes red-green electoral alliance, the future National Assembly will certainly tilt to the left and also force the president to adopt more social-democratic policies. This is, at least, a symptom of something.

In the parliamentary elections in Slovenia in April, the ultra-right populists were voted out of office and a more progressive alliance won by a landslide. Next door, in Austria—turning to my home country—remarkable things are happening too.

Orgy of scandals

Last autumn, the former populist-conservative beacon Sebastian Kurz had to resign as chancellor, as a result of an orgy of scandals, having taken over the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and governed from 2017, first with the far-right FPÖ and then in a right-left coalition with the participation of the Greens. The ÖVP, in government without interruption since 1986 and retaining the chancellorship, has been badly shaken by corruption revelations which have become a weekly soap opera. It must already fear the fate of Italian Christian democracy, which after decades of dominance simply perished amid the mani pulite (‘clean hands’) movement of the early 1990s in Italy.

The social-democratic SPÖ has been rising steadily in the polls for months, and in the past ten weeks opinion researchers have perceived a sea-change in the popular mood. The SPÖ now enjoys around 32 per cent support. The ÖVP is far behind with about 21 per cent—even adding the Green tally only brings this up to about 30 per cent. A German-style Ampelkoalition of the SPÖ, Greens and liberal NEOS would almost certainly be backed by a comfortable majority of seats.

Yet the social democrats’ leader, Pamela Rendi-Wagner, has not exactly had it easy in recent years. In 2018 she succeeded Christian Kern, voted out as chancellor the year before. Contested personnel changes and inner-party trench warfare had left the SPÖ quite shattered internally. The leader had to hold a divided party together and contend with provincial politicians who regularly questioned her authority.

Quite understandably, party supporters did not exactly have undue confidence in Rendi-Wagner’s capacity. She had only entered politics and joined the party a few years previously and lacked political know-how and instinct. But she proved to have staying power and stamina.

In recent months she has acquired Machiavellian skills, kept the party on a clear ‘social justice’ course and, through her appearances, familiarised the electorate with the prospect that she is most likely to be the next chancellor, as the polls reflect. The strength of the SPÖ is, still, mainly a product of the conservatives’ demise. Yet the ultra-right FPÖ has not been able similarly to exploit the weakness of the government—which, while the next parliamentary elections are not routinely due until 2024, may not make it until the full term.

Significantly different

Is the resurgence of the SPÖ another indication of a ‘social-democratic decade’ possibly hoving into view?

On a sober assessment, national circumstances significantly differ. A common European Zeitgeist roughly existed in the 1970s and 80s (Willy Brandt, Olof Palme, Bruno Kreisky, François Mitterrand) and at the end of the 1990s (Tony Blair, Gerhard Schröder, Franz Vranitzky, Lionel Jospin). Today that is not easily recognisable.

In addition, social-democratic election victories, even where they lead to the assumption of government, are not usually glorious triumphs these days. In fragmented party systems, 25 or 26 per cent at the polls is often enough for the party leader to become prime minister.

But then the exigencies of a parliamentary majority usually require a complicated coalition, with the alternative a shaky minority administration, which means ambitious policy changes cannot be pushed through. After four or five years in government, there may be little in the way of signature projects on which to claim a renewed mandate.

In today’s mediatised politics, moreover, those election results largely depend on top public figures. It is not primarily the party, but the personality, who wins.

Similar challenges

Despite all these differences, however, there are often very similar challenges. Today, social-democratic parties and their supporters are usually an alliance of the progressive, urban middle classes (for which they compete with the Greens and Liberals, for example) and the (post-)proletarian, culturally more conservative working classes from suburban areas and small towns (for which they often compete with the populists).

The economically most oppressed members of the classes populaires have felt in recent decades abandoned, even betrayed, by politics in general and, in particular, by social democrats as their ‘natural’ representatives. Noisy right-wing politicians have taken advantage of this, banging the drum that nobody else is taking notice—and then affirming: ‘I am your voice.’

Social-democratic politics is to a certain extent in a permanent strategic dilemma. On the one hand, it has to win back trust in these fragmentated new and old working classes, milieux from which it has alienated itself, where there is real anger and fear as to economic prospects. Yet on the other hand, it must not lose the progressive, urban middle classes and the new generations of activists of a diverse left. That is not easy, but recent evidence indicates it is not impossible.

Rebuilding trust

In particular, the SPD‘s ‘respect for you’ (Respekt für Dich) election campaign, with some striking demands and programme points—such as raising the minimum wage—rebuilt trust in traditional working-class milieux as well as making gains among the new precariat. The same applies to the SPÖ’s path and positioning, including in federal provinces and cities where it is still dominant, such as Vienna, Burgenland or medium-sized towns such as Traiskirchen. Often it is more charisma, body language and style of address that lead to social-democratic functionaries appearing persuasively as ‘one of us’.

At the same time, the social question is becoming more central: with inflation at a peak of some 8 per cent, the threat of loss of prosperity and fear of decline is reaching far into the middle class. In view of the multiple crises—the pandemic, the war and the climate catastrophe—a need for security is to the fore.

The language of ‘modernisation’, which helped Brandt or, decades later, Blair to gain majorities under different conditions falls flat when the public are simply afraid. Social democrats can win when they credibly address this craving for security.

When an epidemic paralyses essential exchanges or a geopolitical conflict challenges the supply of energy, ‘free the markets’ is not a credible compass. The coronavirus and now the shockwaves of war show that markets often simply do not work or are at least prone to herd instincts and panic reactions, which in turn lead to price rises. In fatal crises, citizens hope for protection from the state, so social-democratic policies almost automatically gain traction.

Primacy of politics

Those who see themselves as ‘regular’, ‘ordinary’ people want their problems to be noticed. Many are terrified, no longer knowing how to pay their bills. Today, hardly anyone in their right mind would dispute the primacy of politics over leaving the markets to their own dynamics.

But that also means preferring politicians who ‘can do it’, who are trusted to govern professionally. This is no longer the moment for dazzlers, populist scramblers and showmen. Who wants to bet on firebrands when there are already fires on every corner?

That is more or less the prevailing picture of today’s times and it at least gives reasonable liberal-left parties every chance. Take all these elements together and yes: it could indeed be a ‘social-democratic decade’.

This is a joint publication by Social Europe and IPS-Journal

Robert Misik
Robert Misik

Robert Misik is a writer and essayist in Vienna. He publishes in many outlets, including Die Zeit and Die Tageszeitung. His awards include the John Maynard Keynes Society prize for economic journalism.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198345f5300d0e 2 Britain’s COVID Generation: Why Social Democracy Must Seize the MomentJatinder Hayre
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
u4219834664e04a 8a1e 4ee0 a6f9 bbc30a79d0b1 2 Closing the Chasm: Central and Eastern Europe’s Continued Minimum Wage ClimbCarlos Vacas-Soriano and Christine Aumayr-Pintar
u421983467f bb39 37d5862ca0d5 0 Ending Britain’s “Brief Encounter” with BrexitStefan Stern

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity”,

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641