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Andrew Watt

Andrew Watt is head of the European economic policy unit at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung) in the Hans Böckler Stiftung.

Andrew Watt

Recovery and Resilience: stop-gap or sea-change?

Andrew Watt 30th May 2022

The Recovery and Resilience Facility could remain a one-off crisis measure—or point to a permanent EU fiscal arrangement.

EU labour markets in the pandemic: unemployment only part of the story

Andrew Watt 9th October 2020

The good news is that unemployment has only risen modestly so far; the bad news is that hours worked have plummeted.

Emerging stronger from the crisis

Andrew Watt 1st July 2020

Europe needs to do more at federal level if a recovery plan is to be successful.

Welcome but inadequate: European measures to counter the corona crisis

Andrew Watt 20th March 2020

More monetary-policy easing is still a one-club approach—fiscal support is also needed at EU level.

Europe needs a strong macroeconomic policy core—but not a Six (or Two) Pack

Andrew Watt 6th February 2020

In light of the eurozone and, now, climate crises, EU macroeconomic policy co-ordination needs a reboot.

The European Green Deal: will the ends, will the means?

Andrew Watt 14th January 2020

The European Green Deal needs sustained political commitment, especially on ‘just transition’, if it is to realise its ambition.

Macron and Kramp-Karrenbauer: vive la différence?

Andrew Watt 21st March 2019

The proxy media exchange between the French president and the leader of the German Christian democrats is a sign of an emergent European public sphere. On March 4th something unusual—as far as I can recall, unprecedented—happened in European politics. The head of state of a member state of the European Union, the French president, Emmanuel […]

The Left-Sovereigntist Fantasy: A Response To William Mitchell And Thomas Fazi

Andrew Watt 7th November 2017

William Mitchell and Thomas Fazi (WM/TF) have written a piece that – under the presumptuous title of Everything You Know About Neoliberalism Is Wrong – offers a critique of the idea that nation states need to pool sovereignty in order to enact progressive policies and makes a plea for a “progressive emancipatory vision of national sovereignty”.  It has attracted […]

Schäuble’s Poisoned Parting Gift To The Eurozone

Andrew Watt 17th October 2017

Those who wish to leave – so a German saying – you should not seek to dissuade from so doing. To few people is the phrase more applicable than to Wolfgang Schäuble who is resigning the post of German finance minister and, with it, that of de facto head of the Euro Group. He held […]

The Strange Non-Death Of Public Welfare Spending

Andrew Watt 14th March 2017

In 2013 Colin Crouch wrote a noted book entitled The strange non-death of neoliberalism. In it he discussed why neoliberalism had managed to avoid being killed by what had appeared to be its nemesis: the global financial and economic crisis. The title came to mind on reading  some recent work on the political economy of modern […]

Germany’s Debt Brake Is Not A Model For Europe

Andrew Watt 14th September 2016

My IMK colleagues Christoph Paetz, Katja Rietzler and Achim Truger have just issued an important analysis of experience with the German Schuldenbremse (debt brake) since 2011. If you read German I heartily recommend you to consult it. We will prepare an English translation, but given the importance of the debt brake for the fiscal policy discussion in Europe (and the […]

No Good Options For The UK – Risks But Opportunities For The EU

Andrew Watt 28th June 2016

I recall many years ago discussing an industrial conflict with someone who is now a senior trade union leader. Sure I can get our people “up a palm tree”, he said. But then I have to know how to get them back down again afterwards. This common sense advice was not taken by the Brexiteers. […]

The IMF On Greek Debt – Redefining Chutzpah?

Andrew Watt 31st May 2016

A definition of chutzpah is murdering your parents and then claiming social benefits as an orphan. It is not widely recognised, but the IMF illustrates similar brazenness in the current debate on Greece’s debt burden. While not exactly pretending to be an orphan, the IMF is currently getting a lot of sympathy for its position: […]

Same ECB Medicine, Higher Dosage – Good But More Needed

Andrew Watt 14th March 2016

The ECB has announced a further expansionary shift by beefing up a range of existing policy instruments. Barring unexpected positive shocks this will not be enough to break out of a deflationary environment and convincingly underpin growth and a rapid reduction in unemployment. For that to happen fiscal policy must turn expansionary and/or the ECB […]

The Dialectics Of European Integration – A New Push For A Federal EMU?

Andrew Watt 2nd September 2015

Whatever else they might disagree about, just about everybody commenting on Europe agree about this: the succession of crises – financial, economic, fiscal, and now refugees – have set Europe’s peoples against one another. Nationalist and racist parties are gaining strength on the Right – with a real risk of Mme Le Pen becoming the […]

Why We Need Another European Council And Not a Greferendum

Andrew Watt 30th June 2015

In the late 1950s, as the Cold War increasingly appeared likely to destroy the planet, the British philosopher Bertrand Russell wrote of the game of chicken being played by the superpowers: As played by irresponsible boys, this game is considered decadent and immoral, though only the lives of the players are risked. But when the […]

Drawing The Right Lessons From The Greek Pension Crisis

Andrew Watt 8th June 2015

The Financial Times has a useful background article on the debate about pension reforms in Greece, one of the main sticking points in the current showdown, which makes a number of important points. Some comments and amplifications are in order. The article refers to groups of workers that, at least until the crisis, enjoyed very […]

The Greek Stand-off: A Proper Sense Of Perspective Is Urgently Needed

Andrew Watt 16th April 2015

Media reports indicate that the stand-off between the new Greek government and its creditors is going to the wire. At stake is Greece’s continued membership of the euro area. Much has been written on the lack of progress and understanding between the two sides. In many cases reports are based on little more than gossip, […]

Excessive Austerity Not A Lack Of Structural Reform Is Holding Back Investment In Greece

Andrew Watt 1st April 2015

A while ago I participated in a TV debate on Greece (German speakers can follow this link). One of the points of contention was whether investment in Greece has been structurally weak, hampered by overregulation or corruption – in short: it’s the supply side, stupid – or whether the country’s economic problems are primarily derived […]

Yesterday’s Rubbish: Or Why Is A Minimum Wage Different From Free Trade?

Andrew Watt 4th July 2014

Germany’s first post-war Chancellor Konrad Adenauer is usually held to be the origin of an often-quoted phrase „Was kümmert mich mein Geschwätz von gestern?“. Roughly: why should I be concerned about the rubbish I talked yesterday? Whatever the rights and wrongs of this attribution, the phrase – used to draw attention to someone who places […]

Europe’s Underappreciated Success: 10 Years Of Post-Enlargement Convergence

Andrew Watt 5th May 2014

On May 1st 2004 ten countries joined the EU in the biggest enlargement of the Union to date. Moreover it was a step heavy with symbolism. Eight of the ten – the exceptions being the two Mediterranean island economies Cyprus and Malta – had until just over a decade earlier been part of the Warsaw […]

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Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

The macroeconomic effects of re-applying the EU fiscal rules

Against the background of the European Commission's reform plans for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), this policy brief uses the macroeconometric multi-country model NiGEM to simulate the macroeconomic implications of the most relevant reform options from 2024 onwards. Next to a return to the existing and unreformed rules, the most prominent options include an expenditure rule linked to a debt anchor.

Our results for the euro area and its four biggest economies—France, Italy, Germany and Spain—indicate that returning to the rules of the SGP would lead to severe cuts in public spending, particularly if the SGP rules were interpreted as in the past. A more flexible interpretation would only somewhat ease the fiscal-adjustment burden. An expenditure rule along the lines of the European Fiscal Board would, however, not necessarily alleviate that burden in and of itself.

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The report analysis the evolution of the real total wage bill from 2019 to 2022 to show how its different components—employment, nominal wages and inflation—have changed during the COVID-19 crisis and, more recently, during the cost-of-living crisis. The decomposition of the total wage bill, and its evolution, is shown for all wage employees and distinguishes between women and men. The report also looks at changes in wage inequality and the gender pay gap to reveal how COVID-19 may have contributed to increasing income inequality in different regions of the world. Together, the empirical evidence in the report becomes the backbone of a policy discussion that could play a key role in a human-centred recovery from the different ongoing crises.


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