Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Unions May Be Down, But They’re Not Out: Take Note, Governments In Western Europe!

Alison Johnston, Kerstin Hamann and John Kelly 6th October 2016

Alison Johnson

Alison Johnson

The fall-out from the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent European debt crisis has put labor unions on the defensive. Although these crises were largely precipitated by agents of capital, unions have been unable to assert themselves as a political counterweight to big business and finance. They have instead endured a number of political offensives by governments in the US and Europe, targeting their most basic organizational rights. Moreover, unions across peripheral Europe have been unable to counter the austerity associated with the EU’s fiscal bailouts, which require recipient countries to initiate not only deep public expenditure cuts but also labor market reforms that undermine union power.

Kerstin Hamann

Kerstin Hamann

While unions certainly seem down, they are not out, and, at least in western Europe, they may be more politically powerful than governments give them credit for. Despite their falling membership numbers since the 1970s, organized labor in western Europe has become increasingly successful at waging general strikes. In contrast to economic strikes, levied against employers for better pay and working

conditions, general strikes target governments that propose or implement controversial labor, social and welfare policy reforms. Although economic strikes have

John Kelly

John Kelly

declined markedly in frequency throughout Europe (see Figure 1) general strikes have risen exponentially: the European Union’s 15 western member-states (EU15) and Norway witnessed 20 general strikes in the 1980s, 36 in the 1990s, 39 in the 2000s, and 51 between 2010 and 2014 alone. While Greece accounts for a large proportion of strikes in western Europe (roughly 40% of the overall total), we also see this upward trend when excluding Greece from these figures (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: General and Economic Strikes in the EU15 (plus Norway)

figure_1_social_europe_blog

 Note: Due to missing data, Greece is excluded from the economic strikes figures

Source data from Hamann, K., Johnston, A., and Kelly, J. (2013) “Unions against governments: Explaining general strikes in Western Europe, 1980-2006”, Comparative Political Studies. 46(9): 1030-1057.

Unions call general strikes to pressure governments into modifying controversial policy reform proposals. Unions’ membership decline would suggest that governments have little reason to cater to their demands. However, prior research highlights that governments often respond to general strikes with reform modifications. In the 2000s, 40% of general strikes in western Europe resulted in reform concessions to unions. The likelihood of concessions since the 2008 financial crisis has fallen drastically, but some southern European governments, despite austerity pressures imposed by the “Troika”, continue to engage with unions on policy reforms after general strikes take place. For example, Portugal’s Passos Coelho government partially altered its austerity package after unions held a general strike in protest in November, 2011, while the June, 2013, general strike in Greece against the closure of the Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation pressurized Antonis Samaras into reversing his stance and restoring the television broadcaster’s service.

Why do governments engage with unions on such pivotal welfare and labor market issues, if unions have become so weak? For one, general strikes produce noteworthy disruption. The March 28, 2012 Spanish general strike, for example, resulted in a 16% decline in energy consumption across the country on the day it was held. More importantly, governments also have significant electoral incentives to work with unions after general strikes. Unlike economic strikes, general strikes embody demands (such as resistance to cuts in healthcare expenditure, education, public infrastructure, and social insurance benefits) that appeal to both union members and non-unionized citizens. The role of strikes as “barking dogs” against welfare-reducing policy reforms is enhanced by the fact that they are relatively rare, and highly visible, events, which can involve hundreds of thousands of participants, including non-unionized citizens and potential voters. Over a million workers in Spain, Portugal, Greece, France and Belgium were involved in the November 14th, 2012, general strike against austerity in Europe that was coordinated across borders.

Governments stand to lose electoral support if they ignore such protests. Our recent article published in Comparative Politics finds that, after accounting for economic, fiscal and political conditions, the presence of a general strike in an election cycle leads, on average, to a 2.0-3.5 percentage point drop in a sitting government’s popular vote share at the next election. Moreover, these vote share penalties increase the closer a strike is to election-day. We also find that strikes magnify the electoral consequences of austerity – the negative impact of social expenditure decline on an incumbent’s vote share during an election is doubled if a strike occurs within its tenure. In contrast, if governments cooperate with unions on social policy reform through social pacts, the negative electoral costs associated with social expenditure retrenchment are almost eliminated.

Strikes’ electoral effects are bad news for governments. They suggest that, despite membership decline, unions are able to influence incumbents’ tenure by turning public opinion against governments and their policies via general strike action. In the current austerity climate, governments in Europe have ignored unions’ voices towards welfare and social policy reform, some by choice and others (grappling with EU bailout conditions) through external pressures. They do so at their electoral peril.

Alison Johnston, Kerstin Hamann and John Kelly

Alison Johnston is an Assistant Professor in Political Science and Public Policy at Oregon State University. Kerstin Hamann is Professor of Political Science at the University of Central Florida. John Kelly is Professor of Industrial Relations in the Department of Management, Birkbeck College, University of London.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983ae 3b0caff337bf 0 Europe’s Euro Ambition: A Risky Bid for “Exorbitant Privilege”Peter Bofinger
u4219834676b2eb11 1 Trump’s Attacks on Academia: Is the U.S. University System Itself to Blame?Bo Rothstein
u4219834677aa07d271bc7 2 Shaping the Future of Digital Work: A Bold Proposal for Platform Worker RightsValerio De Stefano
u421983462ef5c965ea38 0 Europe Must Adapt to Its Ageing WorkforceFranz Eiffe and Karel Fric
u42198346789a3f266f5e8 1 Poland’s Polarised Election Signals a Wider Crisis for Liberal DemocracyCatherine De Vries

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity”,

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641