The future of work: getting ready for tomorrow today

There is no single future for the world of work—and it is up to policy-makers to shape it.

In 1959 the American inventor Charles Kettering declared: ‘The world hates change. Yet is is the only thing that has brought progress.’ It is not however change that is at issue but the uncertainty change brings.

There is plenty of uncertainty in the rapidly changing world of work. Will remote work fundamentally alter how workers collaborate? Will they be managed by robots powered by artificial intelligence? Will the ‘platformisation’ of work lead to a deterioration in working conditions? And will all ‘green’ jobs be good jobs?

The simple answer is that there is no one future covering all jobs. Policy-makers will have their work cut out to ensure that remote and platform working, AI and policies on climate change will benefit, not disadvantage, workers.

Remote work

‘Telework’ increases the incidence of working long hours and beyond those contractually required. Remote work can however offer many benefits—such as improved work-life balance—if the right policies are in place. 

Almost 39 per cent of dependent employment in the European Union can potentially be done remotely and this share is likely to increase. In 2021, 60 per cent of workers said they would like to work from home at least some of the time. The main consideration was the promise of more flexible working time and better work-life balance—but there may be a price to pay. 

As boundaries between work and personal life are increasingly blurred, teleworkers are more likely to report work-life interference and working during nominally free time. A recent investigation by Eurofound found that during a typical working week over 80 per cent of workers surveyed received work-related communications outside their contractual working hours. 

Telework can also negatively affect workers’ wellbeing. Compared with those working from an employer’s premises, teleworkers are more likely to suffer headaches and eyestrain and to work while sick. And while they may not be as exposed to adverse social behaviour or emotional demands as their in-office counterparts, teleworkers’ psychosocial wellbeing can be at risk as social interaction at the workplace is replaced by long, lonely hours in front of a screen at home.

While working-time flexibility and task autonomy are more likely to be available to teleworkers than those working from an employer’s premises, the downsides of telework are mainly associated with an ‘always-on’ culture enabled by the same technologies that make remote work possible. Company policies that establish a ‘right to disconnect’ can thus make a difference, as additional hours worked due to being contacted are more likely to have been agreed in advance and compensated.

Robotic technology

Robotic technology is now a permanent and productive part of the workplace. But not all jobs will be automated away. 

Advanced robotic systems and applications are a source of disruption in workplaces—but ‘disruption’ is not necessarily a bad thing. Thanks to state-of-the-art sensors and enhanced functionalities, human-robot interaction is safer than ever and enabling more efficient and effective collaboration.

Why do companies use robotic technologies? The high cost of labour and difficulties in recruiting staff are two main reasons. Increased competitiveness and productivity gains are other driving factors. So are doomsday scenarios of massive job losses due to automation justified?

In reality, organisations tend to take a conservative approach to technology adoption, relying on proven business cases. In case studies conducted by Eurofound, robotic technologies primarily automated manual and routine tasks, rather than eradicating job profiles. They have a positive impact on the physical environment: by taking over repetitive or physically demanding tasks, they help reduce physical strain and lower the risks of injuries or accidents. 

The impact on workers’ ability to take decisions is more mixed. While robotic technology can restrict a person’s freedom in the way they perform their job, this can be avoided if it is used as a discretionary tool that complements work. Some robotic systems—such as those implemented in warehouses—tend to restrict social interaction. The changes brought about by autonomous or semi-autonomous advanced robotics in workplaces require thoughtful consideration and proactive management to ensure a positive impact for businesses and workers. Involving workers and their representatives in the design, testing and implementation of robotic technologies is essential to foster a sense of ownership and trust.

Platform work

The rise of the platform economy is another disruptive force in European labour markets. Platform work presents significant issues regarding workers’ employment status and opaque algorithmic-management systems.

An online platform connects an organisation or individual, via an algorithm, with another organisation or individual to solve problems or to provide services in exchange for payment. The result is not a continuous employment relationship but the performance of individual tasks or projects, often very small.

There are concerns that these management practices are increasingly used in the broader economy, leading to a widespread—even global—division of tasks, performed by workers who are no longer employees of a company but are nominally self-employed. Yet while platforms are expanding their reach and diversifying into novel business models, the phenomenon is still limited: only 1.4 per cent of workers in the EU derive more than half their income from platform work.

Platform work remains a heterogeneous phenomenon, with tasks variously performed online or on location, requiring low or high skills, giving the client or the service provider the power to select. The common denominator is easier access to the labour market, the flexibility to organise work and access to a large client base. Disadvantages include the risk that skills are underutilised and atrophy, allied to poor career prospects and lack of autonomy.

The biggest bone of contention is however the employment status of platform workers. If there is a relationship of dependence with the platform, a worker should not be classified as an ‘independent contractor’. Recent Eurofound research established that only around 6 per cent of platform workers obtained unemployment-benefit coverage through a platform for which they worked, indicative of employee status.

Another major concern is the lack of transparency relating to algorithmic-management systems. Although these are regularly used to allocate and review tasks and to assess performance, platform workers often have little or no information about the systems in use, the type of decisions they take or support, or the grounds for decisions that influence workers’ engagement with the platform.

Ensuring that the employment status of people working through platforms is correctly classified and increasing the transparency of algorithms are core components of the proposed platform-work directive.

Green transition

Climate change is set to have a profound impact not only on living conditions but also on Europe’s labour markets, working conditions and job quality. Unsurprisingly, workers in agriculture, forestry, fisheries and construction—all sectors characterised by a high degree of outdoor activity—are at greatest risk. These workers are directly affected by heatwaves, adverse weather events and the increased risk of vector-borne diseases.

Job loss due to climate-mitigation policies is another concern. Restructuring and shutting down industries that contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas emissions could destroy well-paid, secure jobs. While alternative job creation is often on the agenda, it is generally assumed that such jobs will be of a high quality—yet specific assessments or measures as to how this can be ensured are rare.

Eurofound research shows the green transition will have a direct impact on 40 per cent of workers in the EU. This is because of increased demand for their occupation, the need for enhanced skills or the emergence of new occupational profiles.

Across the labour market, jobs in ‘new and emerging occupations’ provide the best conditions: more than 80 per cent of workers in this category are in high-quality jobs. They have good access to resources and low exposure to job demands that cause strain.

But the picture is not so positive for workers in occupations for which there is increased demand because of greening policies. These are often ‘strained jobs’, in which workers have limited access to resources and face many demands. Almost 40 per cent of workers in these occupations feel that work is putting their health and safety at risk.

The green transition will not automatically lead to better jobs. Levelling up job quality—as envisaged by the European Pillar of Social Rights—must therefore become an integral part of climate-change policies.