Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Projects
    • Corporate Taxation in a Globalised Era
    • US Election 2020
    • The Transformation of Work
    • The Coronavirus Crisis and the Welfare State
    • Just Transition
    • Artificial intelligence, work and society
    • What is inequality?
    • Europe 2025
    • The Crisis Of Globalisation
  • Audiovisual
    • Audio Podcast
    • Video Podcasts
    • Social Europe Talk Videos
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Shop
  • Membership
  • Ads
  • Newsletter

Trump, Putin, Orbán, Kaczyński, May, Salvini… An Opportunity For Europe

by Guillaume Duval on 30th October 2018 @gduval_altereco

Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on LinkedIn
© Hermance Triay

Guillaume Duval

Salvini, Orbán, Kaczyński, Trump, Putin, May… the European Union has so many enemies one wonders more and more frequently if it’ll survive. Yet these challenges may turn out to be opportunities instead.

Donald Trump, in truth, represents a great stroke of luck for Europe. His repeated casting of doubt over the American military protection granted to the old continent since the end of the second world war is a powerful invitation for us to construct at last a defence and security policy independent from the US. What’s more, this is a terrain on which France is well-placed to play a leadership role in Europe. At the same time, Trump’s aggressive trade policy vis-à-vis countries showing trade surpluses in their commercial dealings with the US might finally force our German neighbours to accept a change in economic policy in Europe so as to grow domestic demand here to avoid the possibility they are no longer able to sell cars across the Atlantic.

Vladimir Putin’s aggression towards the EU does not simply pose a serious geo-strategic threat on its eastern flank but also prevents countries in central and east Europe from pushing their euroscepticism too far and taking head-on west European countries. Moreover, Europe’s current very strong dependence on Russian gas is a powerful incentive to join in speeding up the energy transition in order to get rid of that dependence.

Orbán, Kaczyński and co won’t push their countries to leave the EU as they fear being left alone with the Russian bear. And the economy of all these countries is today very tightly bound up with that of west Europe. On the other hand, the deep Euroscepticism that is obviously there for the long term in central and east Europe eases a serious difficulty. So far, the Germans have been pretty lukewarm about the idea of a multi-speed Europe and a deeper integration of the eurozone so as not to isolate the Poles. Now they’ve understood that from now on there’s no other solution if they want to pursue European integration.

As for Brexit, it removes from the game the British who have effectively blocked European integration for 40 years by successfully limiting Europe to a single market based on all-out mutual competition and fiscal and social dumping. Their departure, moreover, deprives Germany of a privileged spare partner when it wants to oppose French initiatives.

Finally, Matteo Salvini is forcing the other Europeans, especially the French, to stop burying their heads in the sand as regards to migrants and draw up a proper common policy in this area even if, right now, such a policy is more than likely to turn out to be profoundly unsatisfactory. Equally, Italy’s refusal to carry on playing by the stupid budgetary rules imposed on the eurozone by Wolfgang Schäuble and the Eurogroup hawks who have brought the country to a dead-end economically, might call these rules into question because Italy isn’t Greece. Indeed, you cannot treat the zone’s third biggest economy, founder signatory of the Treaty of Rome, with the same off-handedness and spite as meted out to Greece since 2010.

Join our growing community newsletter!

"Social Europe publishes thought-provoking articles on the big political and economic issues of our time analysed from a European viewpoint. Indispensable reading!"

Polly Toynbee

Columnist for The Guardian

Thank you very much for your interest! Now please check your email to confirm your subscription.

There was an error submitting your subscription. Please try again.

Powered by ConvertKit

Last of all, Angela Merkel is profoundly weakened internally. And Germany’s economic domination in Europe is no help at all geo-politically: militarily and diplomatically Germany is still a dwarf. When it comes to trade, it cannot cut the mustard alone confronting Donald Trump. After Brexit and the eurosceptical shift in central Europe, Germany has no option but to reach an understanding with France if it wishes to pursue European integration. That won’t always be the case but, for now, there can scarcely be any doubt that the great majority of Germans still favour it. If Germany has put European construction at risk with its catastrophic management of the post-2008 crisis this has been involuntary, through ideological blinkeredness and not through any determination to smash the vehicle.

Might Emmanuel Macron be the one, as he proclaims, to seize this bundle of opportunities to finally relaunch European construction? That’s clearly desirable since it is he who, as president of the French Republic, could start doing so straight away but nothing is less certain, however. His obsession with advancing the Franco-German tandem is counter-productive because it seriously rubs other Europeans up the wrong way. His ‘Jupiter-like’ manner of intervening in Europe, as he does in France, raises the hackles of all our neighbours who still fear, after all the havoc wrought over the entire continent by Napoleon Bonaparte, French ambition and imperialism in Europe.

What’s more, the way in which he has continued at home the irresponsible policy begun in 2015 by his predecessor on the question of migration – whereby France refused to take its share of welcoming them in – significantly contributed to the turn towards Euroscepticism that took place in Italy. Last but not least, economically and socially he does little more than back the continuation and heightening of the deflationary policies that have prevented Europe from recovering post-2008 and have fed everywhere Euroscepticism and the rise of the populists. If we are to profit from the present cluster of factors that favour a relaunch of European construction we unfortunately need to find, without delay, another engine…

Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on LinkedIn
Home ・ Trump, Putin, Orbán, Kaczyński, May, Salvini… An Opportunity For Europe

Filed Under: Politics Tagged With: globalisationproject

About Guillaume Duval

Guillaume Duval is editor-in-chief of the monthly french magazine Alternatives économiques, a left-leaning economic magazine edited by a co-operative with a circulation of 85,000 copies a month.

Partner Ads

Most Popular Posts

Thomas Piketty,capital Capital and ideology: interview with Thomas Piketty Thomas Piketty
sovereignty Brexit and the misunderstanding of sovereignty Peter Verovšek
China,cold war The first global event in the history of humankind Branko Milanovic
centre-left, Democratic Party The Biden victory and the future of the centre-left EJ Dionne Jr
Covid 19 vaccine Designing vaccines for people, not profits Mariana Mazzucato, Henry Lishi Li and Els Torreele

Most Recent Posts

supply chain,Germany,human rights Germany’s proposed supply-chain law—a glass half-empty Johanna Kusch and Claudia Saller
Myanmar,due diligence Human-rights due diligence and Myanmar Frank Hoffer
women workers,services Covid-19: a tale of two service sectors John Hurley
Uber,drivers,gig UK gig drivers recognised as workers—what next? Jill Toh
European Pillar of Social Rights,social pillar EU credibility as a people’s union rests on the social pillar Liina Carr

Other Social Europe Publications

RE No. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden?
US election 2020
Corporate taxation in a globalised era
The transformation of work
The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state

Social Europe Publishing book

With a pandemic raging, for those countries most affected by Brexit the end of the transition could not come at a worse time. Yet, might the UK's withdrawal be a blessing in disguise? With its biggest veto player gone, might the European Pillar of Social Rights take centre stage? This book brings together leading experts in European politics and policy to examine social citizenship rights across the European continent in the wake of Brexit. Will member states see an enhanced social Europe or a race to the bottom?

'This book correctly emphasises the need to place the future of social rights in Europe front and centre in the post-Brexit debate, to move on from the economistic bias that has obscured our vision of a progressive social Europe.' Michael D Higgins, president of Ireland


MORE INFO

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

Renewing labour relations in the German meat industry: an end to 'organised irresponsibility'?

Over the course of 2020, repeated outbreaks of Covid-19 in a number of large German meat-processing plants led to renewed public concern about the longstanding labour abuses in this industry. New legislation providing for enhanced inspection on health and safety, together with a ban on contract work and limitations on the use of temporary agency employees, holds out the prospect of a profound change in employment practices and labour relations in the meat industry. Changes in the law are not sufficient, on their own, to ensure decent working conditions, however. There is also a need to re-establish the previously high level of collective-bargaining coverage in the industry, underpinned by an industry-wide collective agreement extended by law to cover the entire sector.


FREE DOWNLOAD

ETUI advertisement

ETUI/ETUC (online) conference Towards a new socio-ecological contract 3-5 February 2021

The need to effectively tackle global warming puts under pressure the existing industrial relations models in Europe. A viable world of labour requires a new sustainability paradigm: economic, social and environmental.

The required paradigm shift implies large-scale economic and societal change and serious deliberation. All workers need to be actively involved and nobody should be left behind. Massive societal coalitions will have to be built for a shared vision to emerge and for a just transition, with fairly distributed costs, to be supported. But this is also an opportunity to redefine our societal goals and how they relate to the current focus on (green) growth.


REPLAY ALL SESSIONS

To access the videos, click on the chosen day then click on the ‘video’ button of your chosen session (plenary or panel). It will bring you immediately to the corresponding video. To access the available presentations, click on the chosen day then click on the ‘information’ button. Check the links to the available presentations.

Eurofound advertisement

Industrial relations: developments 2015-2019

Eurofound has monitored and analysed developments in industrial relations systems at EU level and in EU member states for over 40 years. This new flagship report provides an overview of developments in industrial relations and social dialogue in the years immediately prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. Findings are placed in the context of the key developments in EU policy affecting employment, working conditions and social policy, and linked to the work done by social partners—as well as public authorities—at European and national levels.


CLICK FOR MORE INFO

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

FEPS Progressive Yearbook

Twenty-twenty has been an extraordinary year. The Covid-19 pandemic and the multidimensional crisis that it triggered have boosted existing trends and put forward new challenges. But they have also created unexpected opportunities to set a new course of action for the European Union and—hopefully—make a remarkable leap forward in European integration.

The second edition of the Progressive Yearbook, the yearly publication of the Foundation for European Progressive studies, revolves around the exceptional events of 2020 and looks at the social, economic and political impact they will have in 2021. It is a unique publication, which aims to be an instrument for the progressive family to reflect on the recent past and look ahead to our next future.


CLICK HERE

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Find Social Europe Content

Search Social Europe

Project Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

.EU Web Awards