Strategic autonomy, internal divisions, and external threats: Can the EU adapt and lead in an era of profound change?
Henning Meyer: Almut, thank you very much for joining me to discuss the critical issues of European foreign and security policy at a time of profound change as we move into 2025. To get us started, the concept of strategic autonomy has been prominently discussed within the European Union. How do you assess its relevance in today’s environment, and what does achieving it actually entail?
Almut Möller: Thank you, Henning. It’s great to join you in this conversation and dive into these crucial topics. Strategic autonomy is a concept that can sometimes feel abstract—almost like something developed in a laboratory. However, it’s deeply rooted in real-world challenges. Over the years, the hope that the global setup naturally reflected the interests of the EU and its member states has been contested for quite some time.
The world today, in 2025, poses serious and existential threats to Europe. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is the most pressing example, exposing Europe’s vulnerabilities and the necessity for greater strategic autonomy. On top of this, the unpredictability of the United States under President Trump’s second administration raises the stakes. While there is consensus that Europeans need to take more responsibility for their own security, the situation is complicated by Trump’s erratic leadership, which forces Europe to contend with an ally who will, at times, be openly malign, unpredictable, and fast moving.
For the first time since the early 1990s, the EU must grapple with the urgent task of creating strategic autonomy amid unprecedented challenges. This isn’t just about military matters; it spans economic security, technological resilience, and the ability to act decisively in an unstable world. Achieving this will be difficult, as the EU faces a global environment that is ever less favorable to its founding principles and goals.
Henning Meyer: You’ve outlined the increasing stakes for Europe. Historically, the EU has risen to external challenges by deepening integration. But given the divisions among member states today, can we rely on that approach?
Almut Möller: That’s a critical question. The sense of collective unity—the “we” within the EU—is under significant strain. Internally, the Union is more divided than it has been in decades. Some member states are gravitating toward illiberal policies, while others are experiencing rising nationalism. This fragmentation makes consensus-building a major challenge.
Nonetheless, security must be the EU’s top priority. Without a security foundation, there is no sustainable future for Europe. NATO has traditionally been the framework for European security, and it remains so. However, the EU must step up its role. Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission has laid important groundwork in this area, and the new European Commissioner for defence Andrius Kubilius is expected to deliver a white paper on defence soon. This document will among other areas outline how the EU can leverage its single market to bolster member states‘ commitments within NATO. It will be key for Europe to get the interplay between NATO, the EU, and EU member states right in the coming years.
We must also prioritise economic security. Trade wars and geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US and China, are reshaping the global economic order. The EU needs to protect its Single Market, ensure supply chain resilience, and maintain competitiveness in key sectors. Economic security and strategic autonomy are deeply interconnected.
Henning Meyer: You’ve highlighted the importance of unity, but divisions among member states seem to be a growing challenge. How can the EU navigate these internal differences while addressing external threats?
Almut Möller: Unity is indeed both the challenge and the solution. Geographically, some member states, like those in Eastern Europe, feel the urgency of threats like Russia’s aggression much more acutely than others. In countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, and Finland, the risks are immediate and existential. Meanwhile, in other parts of Europe, the sense of urgency is less pronounced.
To overcome this, the EU must adopt pragmatic strategies. Differentiated forms of nhanced cooperation— mechanisms allowing groups of member states to advance specific initiatives without requiring full consensus—is becoming increasingly important. This approach enables progress while leaving the door open for broader participation later. It’s a way of addressing critical needs without being held back by divisions. Politically, the risk of a fragmented EU is less high than an EU that is unable to act at this point in time.
Henning Meyer: In addition to security, economic resilience is another pillar of strategic autonomy. How does the EU balance internal challenges with external pressures like trade wars and shifting global alliances?
Almut Möller: Economic security is an essential component of strategic autonomy. The EU’s Single Market is one of its greatest achievements, and the EU over the past years has developed robust tools to safeguard it. However, the interconnected nature of today’s global economy means that even the strongest systems are vulnerable to external shocks, especially those that operate with the degree of openness that is part of the EU‘s DNA.
The EU must focus on strengthening supply chains and fostering resilience in critical industries, such as technology and energy. Evolving relations, most likely conflictual, with the US and China will play a significant role here. While the EU wants to avoid trade wars, it must also prepare for scenarios of war, and where multilateralism breaks down further. President Trump’s disdain for institutions like the WTO, and indeed the EU itself, underscores the need for Europe to lead efforts to reform these global frameworks while seeking new partnerships.
Henning Meyer: You’ve spoken about the pressures on the EU both internally and externally. What other challenges do you see shaping Europe’s strategic autonomy in the near future?
Almut Möller: The challenges are immense and multifaceted. Beyond the immediate threats posed by Russia and the shifting dynamics of US-EU relations, the Union must also address the instability in its southern neighborhood, including the Middle East and North Africa. These regions pose complex security, migration, and economic challenges.
Internally, the rise of far-right and nationalist movements threatens the very fabric of the EU. These movements undermine liberal democratic values, creating a challenging environment for policymaking. To maintain its cohesion and legitimacy, the EU must demonstrate its ability to deliver tangible benefits for its citizens—be it through security, economic stability, or social progress.
At the same time, Europe needs to reform its institutions to better respond to crises. Decision-making structures that rely on unanimity among 27 member states are increasingly unsustainable. Adapting to a faster, more flexible mode of operation will be crucial in the years ahead.
Henning Meyer: Let’s focus for a moment on the internal unity versus the external challenges facing the EU. We now have a new vector of attack in the form of private actors like Elon Musk. He’s an external figure with a domestic agenda, and we’ve seen his influence manifest in Europe. For example, his dealings with the Italian government and his recent support for the AfD in Germany’s election campaign. The AfD, of course, advocates for Germany’s withdrawal from the European Union.
Beyond that, we’ve seen Musk use his media platform to stir political turbulence, such as his attacks on Keir Starmer in the UK and reports that he’s consulting on strategies to potentially overthrow Starmer’s government before the next election. This type of threat feels unprecedented. If Musk were to target the European Union directly rather than indirectly through right-wing populist parties in the Member States, how do you assess the EU’s ability to withstand such an attack? Could he whip up enough discontent to destabilise the EU, much like what happened during the Brexit process?
Almut Möller: This is a very real and concerning threat. The EU has tools at its disposal, particularly its regulatory frameworks for tech, and it has shown in the past that it can confront challenges in this area. However, taking on someone with Musk’s resources and influence is no small feat. It’s not exactly a David versus Goliath scenario, but it does require significant power to counter such a multifaceted actor, especially with other companies already joining in.
That said, the deeper issue here is not just about regulation. It’s about the liberal foundations of the European Union itself. The EU is no longer just an economic bloc built around the Single Market. It has evolved into a political and supranational organisation rooted in liberal values. These are precisely the values under attack—not just by Musk but also by many political parties within the EU who have stopped supporting this vision of a liberal Europe.
The most dangerous aspect of this is the risk of an internal takeover. These forces often choose to work through the system, weakening it from within. If we want to preserve the European Union, this requires a robust political fight. And yet, the political debates within member states have become so polarised that even pro-EU parties struggle to articulate a compelling case for the Union. It’s become increasingly difficult to maintain public support for the EU as it exists today.
This is why the EU needs to prove its value in very tangible ways—security, prosperity, and stability. If it fails to do so, the Union itself could fail. And frankly, I see this as a growing risk.
Henning Meyer: If you look back to the 1990s, the economic case for European integration, particularly around the Single Market, was compelling. But as you point out, today’s threats are different. The most pressing case for European unity is now in the realm of security and foreign policy. The idea of confronting an aggressive Russia is something most European citizens can understand intuitively—that this is better done together than alone.
The economic dimension is still important, of course, but we’ve made great strides there. The tools are in place. However, in security and foreign policy, the challenges are unprecedented, and the European approach hasn’t fully adapted. Could this be an opportunity to rejuvenate the European project by building a compelling case for unity around security?
Almut Möller: Absolutely. The original promise of the EU—to prevent war on the European continent—was profoundly compelling. Today, that promise feels distant, but the reality of war has returned to Europe. This provides an opportunity to revisit and reinvigorate the European idea.
The challenge, however, is delivering results. Citizens need to see that the EU is capable of addressing these existential threats. The current European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, and key figures like Kaja Kallas, seem to recognise the urgency. The next steps will require clear and decisive action, particularly in the realm of defence and security.
Delivering results is critical. If the EU fails to prove its relevance in the daily lives of its citizens, the populist critique will only grow louder. Security is the most obvious area where the Union must deliver, but it’s also one of the most difficult.
As I indicated, groups of member states working in flexible ways of cooperation is probably necessary to move forward. And Donald Tusk’s leadership, with Poland holding the EU Council Presidency now, brings hope. He’s experienced, deeply committed to European security, and understands coalition-building. His ability to align willing member states could be a turning point.
Henning Meyer: You’ve mentioned the White Paper on defence that is in the works. If you were drafting it, what would you prioritise?
Almut Möller: The White Paper must tackle both immediate and long-term challenges. First, Europe needs a sustainable mechanism for financing defence. The Next Generation EU fund was transformative during the COVID pandemic, and we need a similar approach for security and defence. Joint borrowing could provide the necessary resources, though it remains politically sensitive.
Collaboration with non-EU partners like the UK and Norway is also essential. The UK, in particular, brings significant weight to European defence, and finding ways to integrate it into EUropean frameworks will be crucial, but since Brexit has become politically difficult The White Paper should show a path towards re-energized cooperation.
Finally, the White Paper should address the political mechanisms required to act decisively. Europe’s decision-making processes need to adapt to the pace of modern crises. Coalitions of the willing can help, but it’s no substitute for a more agile and unified approach.
Henning Meyer: You mentioned political ownership and the challenge of conflict as the new normal. How well-prepared is the EU for this reality?
Almut Möller: The EU has been operating within a framework designed for less conflictual times. As a result, its structures are not well-suited to the rapid pace and high-stakes decision-making required today. Reaching consensus among 27 member states takes time—a luxury we no longer have.
Recent developments, including high-level meetings on security and defence such as in Helsinki this week, and the recent reports by Mario Draghi,Enrico Letta, and Sauli Niinistö show that the urgency is understood. However, the pace of EU decision-making must change fundamentally.
The traditional consensus-driven machinery has reached its limits. While the ideal remains achieving consensus among all member states, the environment demands a different mode of operation.
Henning Meyer: Partnerships with external allies, particularly the United Kingdom, are pivotal. How do you envision deepening these ties?
Almut Möller: It’s absolutely vital for the EU to engage the UK meaningfully in security and defence. Prime Minister Starmer has more breathing space on this issue than he would have on broader EU matters. In Britain, European security is viewed as a shared concern with „the Continent“. This presents an opportunity to build closer ties without reigniting the sensitivities of Brexit.
The challenge lies in navigating the political dynamics on both sides. Crafting partnerships that involve defence cooperation, joint procurement, and shared resources—without appearing to undermine Brexit’s outcomes—is delicate but essential. If the EU and NATO can present a compelling case for these collaborations, aligning corporate and public strategic interests, I’m optimistic about the possibilities.
Henning Meyer: You mentioned corporate interests. Political incentives for corporate cooperation are powerful. After the signing of the recent German-British Treaty, for instance, we saw Rheinmetall announce new investments in the UK. This is a clear example of how bilateral agreements can spur industrial collaboration.
Scaling this approach to the European level could involve programs that design incentives for joint ventures, particularly in the defence industry. Such initiatives would not only strengthen security capabilities but also deepen economic ties across the continent and with the UK.
A final question: You’ve painted a picture of both challenges and opportunities. As we finish our conversation, what’s your vision for the EU in 2025 and beyond?
Almut Möller: My vision is one of an EU that has risen to the challenge, proving its capacity to adapt and lead. The old European security order is gone, and Europe must claim its place at the table in shaping what comes next. This means earning the attention and respect of partners abroad by demonstrating resolve and effectiveness at home.
I remain optimistic. Europe still has the political and material resources to succeed, and 2025 presents a critical window of opportunity. As think tanks, policymakers, and citizens, we must focus on identifying options and pushing for the politically possible. It’s a time for action, not defeatism.
Henning Meyer: Thank you very much, Almut, for your insights and thoughtful analysis. It’s been a pleasure discussing these crucial topics with you.
This article is part of the Project “EU Forward” Social Europe runs in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme.