Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Can Trump broker peace in Ukraine? History may hold the answers

Rigels Lenja 9th December 2024

As Trump enters the White House with ambitious plans to end the Ukraine war, historical precedents—from Munich to Dayton—highlight the challenges of finding a sustainable peace.

u4219834676 Create an abstract illustration to accompany an a 2b697f3e 72ca 4831 b802 d6964c262c7f 3

On 29 February 1944, just weeks before the Normandy landings, US President Roosevelt wrote to the UK Prime Minister Churchill, asserting that the US Army would be demobilised and returned to the United States after the war. In a matter of months, Roosevelt’s successor, Truman, completely reversed this plan. Thousands of US troops remain stationed in Europe to this day. Now, Donald Trump is entering the White House, promising to bring peace between Russia and Ukraine on his first day. He is likely to have to reconsider both his deadline and his plan.

Regarding Ukraine, both the West and Russia have overlapping goals and strategies. Russia has clear political aims but lacks a coherent strategy. Putin’s approach has shifted from ‘liberating Ukraine’ to terrorising the civilian population. The West, on the other hand, has a strategy but lacks clear political objectives. They do not want Ukraine to lose, yet they also do not want Putin to be humiliated. They have promised Ukraine membership in NATO and the EU without a clear plan for how or when this will happen.

What options does Trump have to end the war in Ukraine? History offers some precedents.

Munich Agreement 2.0

In 1938, the leaders of Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom met in Munich to cede a large part of Czechoslovakia to Germany in an attempt to appease Hitler. The Czechoslovak representatives were not even invited. By the time the British Prime Minister landed back in London, Hitler had annexed the entire Czech region and created a vassal state in Slovakia. The 1938 Czechoslovak model is difficult to replicate in Ukraine.

Ukraine will need time to agree to cease the fighting, and Trump will require his European allies to endorse any plan. The current European political establishment will not accept an agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine’s consent.

Permanent Ceasefire in a Frozen Division

In 1974, Turkey launched an operation to secure its Turkish-Muslim minority in Cyprus, following a military coup on the island instigated by Athens. What began as an intervention to protect the Turkish minority turned into a 50-year-long division of Cyprus into two parts. To this day, a substantial demilitarised zone still separates the two sides.

In a similar scenario, Ukraine would have to accept the de facto annexation of the Russian-occupied eastern regions, while constructing a demilitarised zone stretching thousands of miles from the Sea of Azov to the Belarusian border—a kind of modern Maginot Line. Ukraine would need to maintain a massive standing army to guard against any prospective Russian attack. The Turkish intervention was never intended to occupy the entirety of Cyprus, but rather to secure the Turkish-majority areas. Putin, however, has repeatedly made it clear that he wants either the entire Ukraine to be part of Russia or for it to become a vassal state.

Bosnia-Herzegovina of 1878 or Dayton

In 1878, the Great Powers gathered in Berlin to determine the fate of Bosnia. They decided Bosnia should be governed from Vienna, while nominally remaining under Ottoman rule. In the case of Ukraine, this would mean that the eastern part of Ukraine could be technically recognised as part of the country, but Russia would control its day-to-day affairs.

Regardless of the US President’s power, major decisions must be approved by Congress. Even Trump’s allies, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, would likely oppose any deal that appears to reward Russia.

This brings us to a fourth scenario: a Dayton-style agreement. This would involve de facto recognition of the four eastern oblasts as part of Ukraine, but with a special status of autonomy. They would have their own parliament, police, and administration, but be deprived of the right to conduct foreign, economic, or financial policy.

Although the Dayton Agreement was no easy process, the American lead diplomat Richard Holbrooke often threatened the parties with bombing raids to secure their consent—a tactic the US would not be able to employ against Russia. Under a Dayton-style agreement, the four eastern oblasts, treated as a single entity, would likely remain dependent on the Kremlin, risking further dysfunction within Ukraine.

Ultimately, Putin has shown that he cannot be trusted to abide by any signed agreement. The question remains: even if Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire or relinquishes territory, who will guarantee it? Collective security is the best option, but it requires enforcers. Who would be willing to enforce it?

A Deal Now: Who Wins?

To end the current stalemate, where neither side is capable of delivering a decisive blow, it is a matter of finding common ground by urging both parties to scale back their initial goals. Ukraine will accept nothing less than the return of all territories currently occupied by Russia. Putin, meanwhile, will accept nothing short of Ukraine’s subjugation.

A peace agreement under the current conditions on the battlefield would likely lead to only one outcome: a postponement of the war.

Does Putin want a permanent deal in Ukraine? Regardless of what one may think of him, the Russian leader is well aware of Russia’s history. His attack on Ukraine seems motivated by a desire to go down in Russian history as a great conqueror. What Putin has achieved in Ukraine so far will warrant only a passing mention in Russian historical textbooks. He may need a ceasefire, but not a lasting peace agreement.

Putin has portrayed himself as Mr Security, yet under his leadership a foreign army is operating on Russian soil for the first time since 1941. The Russian economy has become a subsidy for China’s economy. The situation has become so dire that Putin had to request ammunition and soldiers from North Korea. A ceasefire now would enable the Russian army to regroup for another offensive in the future.

Rigels Lenja
Rigels Lenja

Dr. des. Rigels Lenja is a journalist, columnist, and historian specialising in East and Southeast European Modern History. His research has focused on dictatorship, genocide, modernwarfare, democracy, and modern religion.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u42198346fb0de2b847 0 How the Billionaire Boom Is Fueling Inequality—and Threatening DemocracyFernanda Balata and Sebastian Mang
u421983441e313714135 0 Why Europe Needs Its Own AI InfrastructureDiane Coyle
u42198346ecb10de1ac 2 Europe Day with New DimensionsLászló Andor and Udo Bullmann
u421983467a362 1feb7ac124db 2 How Europe’s Political Parties Abandoned Openness—and Left Populism to Fill the VoidColin Crouch
u4219834678 41e5 9f3e dc025a33b22c 1 Funding the Future: Why the EU Needs a Bold New BudgetCarla Tavares

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

KU Leuven advertisement

The Politics of Unpaid Work

This new book published by Oxford University Press presents the findings of the multiannual ERC research project “Researching Precariousness Across the Paid/Unpaid Work Continuum”,
led by Valeria Pulignano (KU Leuven), which are very important for the prospects of a more equal Europe.

Unpaid labour is no longer limited to the home or volunteer work. It infiltrates paid jobs, eroding rights and deepening inequality. From freelancers’ extra hours to care workers’ unpaid duties, it sustains precarity and fuels inequity. This book exposes the hidden forces behind unpaid labour and calls for systemic change to confront this pressing issue.

DOWNLOAD HERE FOR FREE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641