Europe’s next term: time for boldness

Progressive leaders must confront the far-right nationalists with the reality that Europe needs more integration, not less.

In the months leading up to the last European Parliament elections in May 2019, the debate was dominated by the very existence of the European Union. Those elections were the first test for Europe after the referendum leading to the UK leaving the union, the election of Donald Trump as ‘Make America Great Again’ US president and the inchoate gilets jaunes eruption in France. Many talked of a ‘Eurosceptic wave of national-populists’ aiming to take over the continent.

Five years on, and a few months before the next Euro-elections, it feels like déjà-vu—with the difference that ‘populist’ has been replaced in the discussion by ‘far-right’. While the combination of xenophobia and anti-environmentalism has shifted Euroscepticism further to the right—hence the new term—it is still premised on nationalism. And while some of its leaders no longer openly advocate withdrawal from the EU, they are still fundamentally anti-European.

Profound challenges

What has fundamentally changed, though, is reality itself. In her last State of the Union address, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said that in recent years the world had ‘turned upside down’. Europe has encountered the most lethal pandemic in a century, the return of large-scale conflict on European soil, a surge of inflation unseen in decades, increasingly evident climate upheavals and the artificial-intelligence revolution. Never since European voters were first called to the polls in 1979 has the union faced such profound challenges.

The pandemic felt like a ‘political parenthesis’: the bogus solutions offered by parties on the fringes put lives in danger and attracted voters back to the more trustworthy. With the gradual return since to normal—if one can call it that—far-right parties have however been climbing back up in the polls, to the point of cashing in on unprecedented results in the last 18 months. Whether in Giorgia Meloni’s Italy or Geert Wilders’ Netherlands, even in Finland and Sweden, the far right is in the driving seat. As a Politico reporter concluded, ‘This time, the far-right threat is real.’

In recent weeks, France’s Rassemblement National, the Alternative für Deutschland and the Italian Lega have sought to tap into the anger of farmers to spur further protest against the EU. Yet even before the farmers’ revolt, the far right had been successful in hijacking the debate in Europe and diverting attention from what is really needed—more European integration. Because even more than five years ago, it is clear that individual countries can simply no longer go it alone.

Decisive moment

A decisive moment of realisation for European leaders was in the summer of 2020 when they established NextGenerationEU as an instrument to support member states hit hard during the pandemic. While anti-EU parties all over Europe were fiercely opposed, the leaders raised their game by agreeing on the issue of common bonds for the first time in the union’s history. It is hard to imagine the lasting damage to European economies—and to the EU as a whole—had they not taken this extraordinary leap forward. That very same courage is needed today, to replicate in other areas what was done with the recovery plan.

This time around, the war in Ukraine is the most acute threat to European security. Apart from the continued need to support Ukraine, the war has put enlargement back on the agenda. Not only have European leaders decided to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova but there is renewed momentum vis-à-vis the countries of the western Balkans. Even audiences in countries firmly opposed to further enlargement before—as in the Netherlands—have shifted due to the new geopolitical constellation. The question now seems not if but when more countries will join. 

Initiatives undertaken to kickstart an essential debate around EU institutional reforms have however so far reached a dead end. There has been no tangible follow-up on the concerns raised by European citizens in the Conference on the Future of Europe, which explicitly sought changes to make the EU function more effectively. Not even last September’s report by a Franco-German expert group has stirred the waters, despite proposing a clear and pragmatic way forward—based on ‘differentiated integration’—to prepare the union for the next enlargement. 

With the surge of the far right in the polls, most European leaders seem trapped as rabbits in headlights—paralysed and unable to embrace the solutions lying in front of them. So once again the EU finds itself in a febrile condition.

Focus on three ‘Ds’

Recent history has taught us we must learn to deal with uncertainty. Doing so means framing Europe’s defining structural needs into an ambitious platform laying out a contemporary vision. Progressives should focus on three ‘Ds’: decarbonisation, digitalisation and defence.

First, decarbonisation: these last few months have made clear that the success of the Green Deal, our greatest hope of countering catastrophic climate change, depends on having a ‘red heart’—the ability to match ambitious and binding targets with the resources to make the transition socially just. Until the question ‘who is going to pay?’ is adequately answered, it will be increasingly difficult to defend the Green Deal from the assault by right-wing forces. Progressives should remain ambitious and focus their efforts to keep environmental protection and social justice intertwined: they are two sides of the same coin.       

Secondly, digitalisation: European industry is lagging in the technological race defining what competitiveness means today. Catching up with other global actors such as the United States and China and achieving the yearned-for ‘technological sovereignty’ requires an innovative combination between the state and the market, finally breaking free from the 20th-century approaches of relying exclusively on one or other factor. This should result in a genuine European industrial policy, fit for this new world. 

Thirdly, defence: exactly 70 years after its failure, we must resume the spirit of the European Defence Community, whose goal was to overcome national barriers and establish a European force genuinely compatible with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Especially after Trump encouraged Russia ‘to do whatever the hell they want’ to NATO members who don’t pay enough, Europeans should realise the limits to US commitment to European defence. Hence Europe can no longer afford the huge inefficiencies associated with national duplication we have seen in recent decades: the European Parliament has estimated that ‘there are still at least €22 billion per year of efficiency gains to be realised’. The cost of non-Europe in this area is enormous, and even more so in geopolitical terms: a common defence force is not only a priority for European security but also finally to have a common foreign policy capable of promoting peace effectively across our borders.

Investment capacity

These huge challenges will require a common investment capacity and—especially with more countries around the table—effective decision-making. Today’s EU has neither. If citizens are to retain confidence in the union’s capacity to act in today’s world, pro-European leaders must get off the back foot. Muddling through or giving in to fear will only make the EU an even bigger scapegoat for those out to undermine it.

And around this time of the year, in five years, it could already be too late.

This is part of our series on a progressive ‘manifesto’ for the European Parliament elections