Georgia’s law against ‘foreign influence’, pushed through the parliament, embodies Russia’s tool against freedom in the region.
Georgians have been protesting since early April against a proposed law requiring non-governmental organisations and media to register as ‘carriers of foreign influence’ if they receive more than 20 per cent of their funding from abroad. Indeed, they defeated the first attempt at its introduction, modelled on a 2012 Russian law, in March 2023 (then the term was ‘foreign agents’). They resisted the police with such determination and spirit that the ruling Georgian Dream was caught off guard and had the law voted down at its first reading—before the ‘No to Russian law’ slogan of the protests could turn into ‘No to Russian government’.
So the party had a year to prepare. Yet Georgians wonder whether everything that is happening is calculated and considered by the regime and its Kremlin backers or whether they have again been taken by surprise. Certainly, the citizens have been surprised themselves by the massive scale and the character of the protests. Stereotypically, Georgians were believed to need a centralised leadership for any political movement, to rally behind a messiah—and that their enthusiasm would wane, and they would go home, if they did not achieve their objectives within a couple of days.
This movement is however decentralised and self-organised, with no evident leadership and enduring in time and spirit. To older generations, it feels like the independence struggle of the 1980s, only better—truly grassroots, in contrast to the idolisation of the 80s leaders.
Social solidarity
True, the ‘Russian law’ was adopted by the parliament, overriding a presidential veto, yesterday. And Georgians feel like they are losing their very independence to Russia: a Georgia isolated from the west is easy prey for Russia, politically and even physically. But even amid confusion and some fear about what the future brings, Georgians are nevertheless proud to be witnessing what feels like a moment of national liberation and encouraged by the newly-discovered social solidarity, as well as by the travel bans imposed by the United States on those undermining democracy in the country.
The president, Salome Zourabichvili, is playing a crucial role. For various past stances such as her position regarding the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, she used to be quite disliked by Georgian patriots. Lately, however her actions have represented the most positively unexpected U-turn in contemporary Georgia.
There had been rumours that Georgian Dream wanted to ‘soften’ the content of the law. This might have misled a part of the population, as well as Georgia’s foreign partners, into thinking some democratic checks and balances remained. The president however pre-empted any such action by the ruling party. On May 18th she brusquely vetoed the law, which meant the party could only backtrack, and suffer a blow, or be forced to take full responsibility for its actions, plough on and face international sanctions and delegitimisation.
The president did not even wait for the urgent opinion from the Venice Commission, the Council of Europe body of experts on constitutional law, which appeared last week, having been commissioned by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in mid-April. This was vehemently sceptical of the law, recommending its entire withdrawal. Georgian Dream lashed out at the commission and disregarded its opinion.
‘Georgian Charter’
On Sunday—Georgian Independence Day—Zourabichvili invited the fractured political opposition to unite around a ‘Georgian Charter’. The charter is a pledge to introduce major judicial, security-services and other reforms, headed by repeal of the foreign-influence law, entailed by the nine steps for Georgia recommended by the European Union to proceed to accession talks. It implies the holding of snap elections as soon as the reforms, among others, would be launched. It will be very hard, reputationally and morally speaking, for parties not to sign the charter, even if they oppose it.
The Georgian public and opposition alike are keen on unseating the government at the elections otherwise scheduled for October. With no illusions about the conduct of the elections, the public will be mobilised to monitor them, hoping that international sanctions plus internal pressure will prevent Georgian Dream being able to rig the results, so opening the door to a ‘velvet’ outcome. A lot will however depend on how Georgian Dream implements the ‘Russian law’: will it begin full-blown repression, jailing, a crackdown on individuals and NGOs? In the worst-case scenario, this might get under way before the elections.
It is crucial that western partners observe the pre-election period throughout. Georgian Dream has previously manipulated elections heavily, months before election day, with pressure, intimidation and vote-buying. It is even more crucial not to legitimise elections should Georgian Dream succeed in rigging the outcome. Clarity is what Georgian society will need at that time, to decide what steps to take next.
There are indications that Georgian Dream could crack. The police are not unconditionally loyal to the regime and for many of the party’s enablers it is a transactional relationship. This is why targeted sanctions and especially travel bans hit them hard—particularly travel bans on family members. Georgians expect the EU to follow the US in these steps, as they equate sanctions with support from friends and partners, rightly or not. EU travel bans could be the most fundamental blow to the regime enablers: access to EU states has been easy given visa-free travel, not so with the US.
Freedom frontline
The EU should be resolute in support of the Georgian people—not only for the sake of Georgians but for the union itself. With such unprecedented protests and international support, the stakes are extremely high and Russia most likely views Georgia as the main frontline of its war against freedom in the world.
If, despite all, Georgia fails in this struggle, similar laws will spring up in other EU aspirant states and even member states themselves. Such a law is already in place in Hungary and we see attempts to introduce such measures in Slovakia and in Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina; even the Serb parliament is beginning to discuss it. What then would stop a law suffocating civic liberties being launched in other states, such as Montenegro and North Macedonia? In Georgia support for EU integration has consistently been around 85 per cent, yet the government still dares to undermine the constitutionally-mandated path to the EU and indeed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
What happens in Georgia today will thus affect the entire EU and the wider Eurasia tomorrow.
Marika Mikiashvili is a member of the Droa party, a lecturer at Alte University in Tbilisi and a researcher on central and eastern Europe and central Asia.