Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Europe’s winter of change: break-up or breakthrough?

Iren Marinova 19th November 2022

This winter, the European Union is facing a multidimensional crisis which could exacerbate intra-EU divisions and power asymmetries.

central and eastern europe,CEE,asymmetries,faultlines,inequalities,disparities,European Union,EU,Europe,union,winter,crisis,inflation,energy
Protest banners outside the Russian embassy in Tallinn in July—now Estonia has 24 per cent inflation to cope with, as well as a threatening neighbour (Claudine Van Massenhove / shutterstock.com)

The European Union is experiencing a multidimensional crisis. On the one hand, Russia is presenting itself as the first genuine traditional security threat for Europe in 30 years. In response, the EU is scrambling to assure its own protection and commitment to the Ukrainian war effort. It is also seeking to adapt and implement necessary changes in its security and defence.

At the same time, EU member states—dependent on Russian gas and facing skyrocketing inflation—face a grave threat to their energy and economic security. The intertwining of these security concerns is amplified by member states’ internal pressures and needs. Clearly, this crisis is affecting the entire EU region. Yet some member states will bear a disproportionate burden because of existing regional asymmetries.

The faultlines

The nature of the EU’s historical development means that it encompasses a complex network of internal dynamics and power relations. Several faultlines in its structure have captured analysts’ attention—many exacerbated during earlier EU crises. The effects of the current crisis will be felt along all these faultlines, as the EU’s internal coherence comes under increasing threat.

The crisis is making far more visible one particular internal division—the east-west divide. This faultline has deep historical roots on the European continent. Some traditional connotations of the divide have diminished with the accession to the EU of central- and eastern-European (CEE) states. Yet socioeconomic disparities and weaker representation in EU decision-making processes remain. At such a pivotal moment for the EU, the effects of these differences are becoming more pronounced.

The focus on this specific EU faultline is important for two reasons. First, a crisis like the one Europe is facing will affect all European citizens. The poorest countries will however be more severely affected because they have different socioeconomic starting points. Secondly, the current crisis has disproportionate gravity in the CEE region, given its geographical proximity to Russia and the conflict.

For CEE governments, this raises immediate security concerns and increases the risk of Russian influence in their internal affairs. Instability stemming from this multilayered crisis could also make some CEE states more prone to a rise in populism and anti-European sentiments.



Don't miss out on cutting-edge thinking.


Join tens of thousands of informed readers and stay ahead with our insightful content. It's free.



The problem today

Most of the EU’s poorest countries lie in the CEE region. European Commission data for September show CEE countries are experiencing the highest inflation, from 13.4 per cent in Romania to 24.1 per cent in Estonia. Among the top ten countries with the highest inflation is only one non-CEE state—the Netherlands. On the other hand, there is no CEE country in the ten lowest-inflation states, rates in which range from 6.2 per cent (France) to 10.3 per cent (Sweden).

But rather than shutting down these inequalities, the current situation is exacerbating them. This could have a long-lasting impact on the EU. Some of the most severe economic effects will be borne by the countries in closest proximity to Ukraine, as well as in poorer CEE states, where poverty will be exacerbated yet further.

Consideration of east-west asymmetries does not however mean we should lump all CEE states into the same category. Nor should we assume they present a united front. It is more complex than that and this complexity adds to the entanglement of the situation.

Instead, the recognition of regional disparities should help us address the multilayered crisis. We should consider the interests of all states and recognise that many CEE states will be affected disproportionately. We should also understand that different states may require different approaches.

Getting through the winter

The EU is said to thrive in crisis. The multilayered face of this crisis, however, has the potential to truly test the resilience and adequacy of the union. Combined, its various dimensions could cause serious trouble for the EU on several fronts. Moreover, the nature of the problem does not render it soluble in the short term once the winter months are over. The EU needs to be thinking about getting through next winter, too.

Experts warn this winter will be harsh and the situation will persist—or worsen—for a few years after that. EU leaders and decision-makers thus need to prioritise the long-term perspective of their decisions. Previous EU crises have resulted in rising anti-EU sentiments and populism in many states and this winter carries a similar risk.

Worsening pain from the economic situation and a cold winter could also hinder European efforts to support Ukraine. Apart from the immediate security concerns this development would carry for eastern Europe, it could also affect the EU’s strategic direction and its reputation as a reliable power in the region.

Thus long-term thinking, attention to persistent internal divides in the EU and consideration of all member states’ needs are essential for getting through the coming winters. The course the EU chooses to follow will not only determine how well it gets through the crisis. It will also define the next steps for it as a regional and global actor.

This article was originally published at The Loop and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence

Iren Marinova
Iren Marinova
Iren Marinova is aPhD candidate in political science at Colorado State University. Her research focuses on the security and foreign policy of the European Union, as well as geopolitics more broadly. She is currently studying the relational dynamics in the formation of the European Union's foreign-policy ambitions.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983467e464b43d2 1 Why European Security and Sovereignty Depend on Its Digital SectorMariana Mazzucato
u42198346c3fba71fa474 0 As Temperatures Rise, European Workers Face a Looming ThreatMarouane Laabbas-el-Guennouni
u42198346741 4727 89fd 94e15c3ad1d4 3 Europe Must Prepare for Security Without AmericaAlmut Möller
6ybe7j6ybe Why Real Democracy Needs Conflict, Not ConsensusJustus Seuferle
u4219837 46fc 46e5 a3c1 4f548d13b084 2 Europe’s Bid for Autonomy: The Euro’s Evolving Global RoleGuido Montani

Most Popular Articles

u4219834647f 0894ae7ca865 3 Europe’s Businesses Face a Quiet Takeover as US Investors CapitaliseTej Gonza and Timothée Duverger
u4219834674930082ba55 0 Portugal’s Political Earthquake: Centrist Grip Crumbles, Right AscendsEmanuel Ferreira
u421983467e58be8 81f2 4326 80f2 d452cfe9031e 1 “The Universities Are the Enemy”: Why Europe Must Act NowBartosz Rydliński
u42198346761805ea24 2 Trump’s ‘Golden Era’ Fades as European Allies Face Harsh New RealityFerenc Németh and Peter Kreko
startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

With a comprehensive set of relevant indicators, presented in 85 graphs and tables, the 2025 Benchmarking Working Europe report examines how EU policies can reconcile economic, social and environmental goals to ensure long-term competitiveness. Considered a key reference, this publication is an invaluable resource for supporting European social dialogue.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
The evolution of working conditions in Europe

This episode of Eurofound Talks examines the evolving landscape of European working conditions, situated at the nexus of profound technological transformation.

Mary McCaughey speaks with Barbara Gerstenberger, Eurofound's Head of Unit for Working Life, who leverages insights from the 35-year history of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS).

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641