Social Europe

  • EU Forward Project
  • YouTube
  • Podcast
  • Books
  • Newsletter
  • Membership

Europe’s energy transition starts to speed up

Dave Jones 31st January 2023

When Russia invaded Ukraine, many feared Europe’s green-energy transition would be collateral damage. Far from it.

energy transition,Europe,wind and solar
Wind and solar are surging as a source of electricity generation in Europe (petrmalinak/shutterstock.com)

Even at the start of 2022, it was clear something was afoot in Europe’s power sector. Gas prices had risen sharply by autumn 2021 and continued to stay high.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, the extent of the challenge became clear. The European Union would have to engineer a shift, rapidly and fundamentally, in how it generates electricity—or leave itself vulnerable to energy blackmail as well as extremely volatile fossil-fuel prices.

Clean-energy surge

In the wake of the invasion, there was speculation that a scramble for emergency measures to secure supplies would stall Europe’s decarbonisation. Could this moment of crisis mark a return to coal?

This though failed to materialise. Instead the EU elected to address multiple vulnerabilities by accelerating the transition to green electricity. There is now a focus on rapidly cutting gas demand while simultaneously phasing out coal. A surge of clean energy is on its way.

Indeed, analysis of full-year EU generation and demand data, released today by Ember, shows this shift is already happening. In 2022, wind and solar power generated a record fifth of EU electricity (22 per cent), for the first time overtaking fossil gas (20 per cent) and remaining above coal (16 per cent).

Fig1

Double challenge

Europe however faced last year a double challenge in its electricity system, which slowed the move from fossil fuels. A one-in-500-year drought led to the lowest hydro generation since at least 2000. Nuclear meanwhile fell, with widespread, unexpected nuclear outages in France and German units reaching planned closure dates.

The drop in hydro and nuclear resulted in a gap of 185 terawatt hours in generation, equal to 7 per cent of Europe’s total electricity demand in 2022. This was largely met by increased wind and solar and a fall in demand. But a sixth of the deficit was assuaged by increased fossil generation.

With gas prices continuing to hit records, coal accounted for most of this increase, with a 7 per cent (28 TWh) rise on 2021. This meant EU power-sector emissions also increased in 2022, by 3.9 per cent.

While fossil-gas supplies and prices dominated news cycles, gas generation remained almost unchanged in 2022, rising just 0.8 per cent year-on-year. Any switching from gas to coal had already taken place the previous year, when gas had already become more expensive.

Weathering multiple crises

This perhaps obscures how well Europe’s power system managed to weather a year of multiple crises. Growth in wind and solar, alongside a fall in electricity demand, prevented a much larger return to coal amid the nuclear and hydro deficit. The increase in coal was relatively minor, with just a 1.5 percentage point rise to generate 16 per cent of EU electricity in 2022, below 2018 levels. This 28TWh rise in EU coal generation added only 0.3 per cent to the global statistic.

Even this slight increase looks very temporary. By the end of the year, coal power was rapidly dropping amid falling electricity demand. It fell for all four of the final months of 2022, with generation down 6 per cent from September to December compared with the same months of 2021.

Much was made of the 26 coal units brought back as emergency standby but they ran at just 18 per cent average utilisation throughout the last three months of 2022, with nine providing no power at all. They added only 0.9 per cent to EU coal generation last year. And, tellingly, member states maintained commitments to coal phase-out, in some cases accelerating their ambition.

Fundamentally changed

We predict that 2023 will show a fundamentally changed EU power sector. With hydro and nuclear generation returned, alongside continued suppressed demand, Europe is set for a huge fall in fossil fuels. Fossil generation could slump by 20 per cent in 2023, double the previous record fall in 2020.

admin

Gas generation is projected to remain more expensive than coal until at least 2025. As wind and solar deployment accelerate, they will displace not only coal but gas too. The power sector is likely to be the fastest-falling segment of gas demand during 2023, bringing relief to Europe’s gas markets as it settles into its new electricity-system paradigm—one without Russian gas, and with a whole lot more clean power.

Dave Jones
Dave Jones

Dave Jones is head of data insights at Ember, which he helped to launch in 2020, and lead author of its Global Electricity Review. He previously worked as an electricity-trading analyst for the German utility E.ON before joining the non-profit Sandbag, where he worked on phasing out coal in Europe.

Harvard University Press Advertisement

Social Europe Ad - Promoting European social policies

We need your help.

Support Social Europe for less than €5 per month and help keep our content freely accessible to everyone. Your support empowers independent publishing and drives the conversations that matter. Thank you very much!

Social Europe Membership

Click here to become a member

Most Recent Articles

u421983467298feb62884 0 The Weak Strongman: How Trump’s Presidency Emboldens America’s EnemiesTimothy Snyder
u4201 af20 c4807b0e1724 3 Ballots or Bans: How Should Democracies Respond to Extremists?Katharina Pistor
u421983c824 240f 477c bc69 697bf625cb93 1 Mind the Gap: Can Europe Afford Its Green and Digital Future?Viktor Skyrman
u421983467b5 5df0 44d2 96fc ba344a10b546 0 Finland’s Austerity Gamble: Tax Cuts for the Rich, Pain for the PoorJussi Systä
u421983467 3f8a 4cbb 9da1 1db7f099aad7 0 The Enduring Appeal of the Hybrid WorkplaceJorge Cabrita

Most Popular Articles

startupsgovernment e1744799195663 Governments Are Not StartupsMariana Mazzucato
u421986cbef 2549 4e0c b6c4 b5bb01362b52 0 American SuicideJoschka Fischer
u42198346769d6584 1580 41fe 8c7d 3b9398aa5ec5 1 Why Trump Keeps Winning: The Truth No One AdmitsBo Rothstein
u421983467 a350a084 b098 4970 9834 739dc11b73a5 1 America Is About to Become the Next BrexitJ Bradford DeLong
u4219834676ba1b3a2 b4e1 4c79 960b 6770c60533fa 1 The End of the ‘West’ and Europe’s FutureGuillaume Duval
u421983462e c2ec 4dd2 90a4 b9cfb6856465 1 The Transatlantic Alliance Is Dying—What Comes Next for Europe?Frank Hoffer
u421983467 2a24 4c75 9482 03c99ea44770 3 Trump’s Trade War Tears North America Apart – Could Canada and Mexico Turn to Europe?Malcolm Fairbrother
u4219834676e2a479 85e9 435a bf3f 59c90bfe6225 3 Why Good Business Leaders Tune Out the Trump Noise and Stay FocusedStefan Stern
u42198346 4ba7 b898 27a9d72779f7 1 Confronting the Pandemic’s Toxic Political LegacyJan-Werner Müller
u4219834676574c9 df78 4d38 939b 929d7aea0c20 2 The End of Progess? The Dire Consequences of Trump’s ReturnJoseph Stiglitz

S&D Group in the European Parliament advertisement

Cohesion Policy

S&D Position Paper on Cohesion Policy post-2027: a resilient future for European territorial equity”,

Cohesion Policy aims to promote harmonious development and reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between the regions of the Union, and the backwardness of the least favoured regions with a particular focus on rural areas, areas affected by industrial transition and regions suffering from severe and permanent natural or demographic handicaps, such as outermost regions, regions with very low population density, islands, cross-border and mountain regions.

READ THE FULL POSITION PAPER HERE

ETUI advertisement

HESA Magazine Cover

What kind of impact is artificial intelligence (AI) having, or likely to have, on the way we work and the conditions we work under? Discover the latest issue of HesaMag, the ETUI’s health and safety magazine, which considers this question from many angles.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Ageing workforce
How are minimum wage levels changing in Europe?

In a new Eurofound Talks podcast episode, host Mary McCaughey speaks with Eurofound expert Carlos Vacas Soriano about recent changes to minimum wages in Europe and their implications.

Listeners can delve into the intricacies of Europe's minimum wage dynamics and the driving factors behind these shifts. The conversation also highlights the broader effects of minimum wage changes on income inequality and gender equality.

Listen to the episode for free. Also make sure to subscribe to Eurofound Talks so you don’t miss an episode!

LISTEN NOW

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

Spring Issues

The Spring issue of The Progressive Post is out!


Since President Trump’s inauguration, the US – hitherto the cornerstone of Western security – is destabilising the world order it helped to build. The US security umbrella is apparently closing on Europe, Ukraine finds itself less and less protected, and the traditional defender of free trade is now shutting the door to foreign goods, sending stock markets on a rollercoaster. How will the European Union respond to this dramatic landscape change? .


Among this issue’s highlights, we discuss European defence strategies, assess how the US president's recent announcements will impact international trade and explore the risks  and opportunities that algorithms pose for workers.


READ THE MAGAZINE

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

WSI Report

WSI Minimum Wage Report 2025

The trend towards significant nominal minimum wage increases is continuing this year. In view of falling inflation rates, this translates into a sizeable increase in purchasing power for minimum wage earners in most European countries. The background to this is the implementation of the European Minimum Wage Directive, which has led to a reorientation of minimum wage policy in many countries and is thus boosting the dynamics of minimum wages. Most EU countries are now following the reference values for adequate minimum wages enshrined in the directive, which are 60% of the median wage or 50 % of the average wage. However, for Germany, a structural increase is still necessary to make progress towards an adequate minimum wage.

DOWNLOAD HERE

Social Europe

Our Mission

Team

Article Submission

Advertisements

Membership

Social Europe Archives

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Miscellaneous

RSS Feed

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641